MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Daily Brief 16-03-22

Executive Summary:

• This week has seen a moderate uptick in optimism about the prospect of a resolution to the war in Ukraine. Diplomats have reportedly been working on a formula for Ukrainian neutrality based upon an Austrian or Swedish model. Under this arrangement Ukraine would receive security guarantees from a third party although it unlikely that Ukraine would accept neutral status without very favourable conditions from Russia and the West.
• This morning Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed the United States Congress. His address followed similar speeches to the British Parliament and Canada’s House of Commons where he urged support for a NATO enforced no-fly zone over Ukraine and further assistance with military hardware including more Stingers and Javelins, long-range, anti-ship missiles, satellite navigation equipment, military radios, communications jamming equipment, and other electronic warfare equipment.
• The White House announced yesterday that President Biden will attend an extraordinary NATO summit in Brussels on March 24. Biden will also engage with European leaders at the European Council. White House press secretary Jen Psaki said that the US and European allies have ‘been incredibly aligned to date… That doesn’t happen by accident. The president is a big believer in face-to-face diplomacy. So, it’s an opportunity to do exactly that.’
• US Lawmakers are considering new legislation which would allow for the confiscation and liquidation of Russian oligarch assets above USD$2 million. This expands on the recently announced Task Force KleptoCapture which was designed to enforce economic punishments on Russia.
• House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD) yesterday outlined to Democrat lawmakers the mechanics of a possible Congressional vote if the Biden administration strikes a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action deal with Iran.
• Poll of the Day shows that support remains strong for the Biden administration’s response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Daily Brief 16-03-22 .pdf