MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Daily Brief 17-03-22

Executive Summary:

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed the United States Congress yesterday. Zelensky spoke in both Ukrainian and English and mentioned Pearl Harbour, Martin Luther King, and the September 11 terrorist attacks. Zelensky again urged the US to enforce a no-fly zone over Ukraine and supply the country with fighter planes. The White House and the Pentagon again refused the request but announced a large package of small arms and defensive equipment. Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-NJ) speculated that the Ukrainian president’s strategy may be to make unfulfillable requests to impel a greater level of military support below NATO’s stated threshold for escalation.
• Malinowski said: ‘The point of the no-fly zone request is to make us feel guilty that we can't do the no-fly zone, so that we work even harder on everything that we can do. It's brilliant. It's exactly what he should be doing.’
• On that military support: Yesterday President Biden announced the activation of additional security assistance of USD$800 billion to Ukraine. Biden said that this added up to USD$1 billion authorised this week. The full list of aid is outlined inside.
• US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin will be in Slovakia today. Austin is expected to discuss the prospect of transferring Soviet designed S-300 surface-to-air missile systems to Ukraine. The proposed plan is similar to the scrapped plan to transfer Polish MiG-29 fighter planes to Ukraine. The important distinction between the two plans appears to be between defensive and offensive capabilities. The Biden administration and the Pentagon have been cautious to avoid supplying military aid to Ukraine that could be perceived as escalating NATO's role in the conflict.
• Democrat leaders have been engaging with lawmakers on potential solutions to rising energy prices. There is a fear amongst Democrats that rising oil prices will be a key campaign platform for the GOP ahead of the midterms. Some of the ideas floated include a gas tax holiday, a windfall tax on oil companies, and a direct government payment.
• Yesterday the Department of Justice and the Treasury Department announced the launch of the ‘Multilateral Oligarch Task Force’.
• The Senate Banking Committee has moved on Biden’s Federal Reserve Bank nominees following the withdrawal of Sarah Bloom Raskin.

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Daily Brief 17-03-22 .pdf