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MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead 4-10 Oct

Executive Summary

  • United States: Senate is due to meet at 1500ET (2000BST, 2100CET) to take up the House-passed bill that seeks to suspend the debt ceiling until December 2022. So far the Senate has failed to pass the bill twice in the face of Republican opposition. GOP demanding that Democrats pass the bill via reconciliation.
  • Japan: New LDP president Fumio Kishida was formally elected as prime minister in a vote in the House of Representatives. On coming to power, Kishida is set to announce a general election to be held on 31 October.
  • Italy:Second day of voting in elections for the mayoralties of Rome, Milan, Turin and other large cities, as well as the southern region of Calabria. Exit polls expected around 1500CET (0900ET, 1400BST), with centre-right coalition looking to hold on in Calabria, while centre-left PD-led coalition looking to oust 5-Star Movement incumbents in Rome and Turin.
  • United Kingdom: Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak delivered speech to Conservative Party conference. Against expectations, Sunak did not announce any significant new policy positions, which instead are likely to come as part of the upcoming autumn spending review.
  • European Union: European Parliament plenary session gets underway in Strasbourg. Continues to 7 October.
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