MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead 6-12 Dec

Executive Summary

Monday 6 December:

• United States: Another busy week kicks off in Congress. Senate Republicans are set to block funding for the White House’s private sector COVID-19 vaccine mandate, with all 50 GOP senators and Democrat Joe Manchin (D-WV) set to back the resolution. However, Republicans in the House will not be able to achieve the same. House and Senate Democratic leaders seeking to reach a resolution on the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), with the House set to take up a last draft agreed by Armed Services Committee leadership that will then be sent to the Senate. Some talk of linking NDAA to the debt ceiling vote, but this is getting pushback. Still no set date for reaching an agreement on the debt ceiling. Soft deadline remains 15 December, but some potential to push this back into January from some observers. Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) still seeking to pass Build Back Better bill by Christmas, but this looks increasingly difficult, with Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) still voicing doubts and Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough not yet giving the green light to plans to pass BBB via reconciliation.
• Russia-India: Russian President Vladimir Putin travels to India to meet with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The two are set to sign a number of cooperation agreements relating to defence, trade, and investment, while the leaders will be joined by their respective defence and foreign ministers for the first Indo-Russian ‘2+2’ talks. While the US wants to make India a more integrated ally with itself and the West to stand against Chinese influence in Asia, India maintains close relations with Russia, purchasing missiles in 2018 despite the threat of US sanctions.
• Eurozone: Eurogroup meeting of EZ finance ministers takes place. Ministers set to discuss the latest enhance surveillance report on Greece, the Eurogroup’s work programme for H122, and 2022 draft budgetary plans.
• Canada:Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland is set to appear for two hours before the Commons Finance Committee as part of an effort to fast-track the government’s latest COVID-19 financial aid package. The government wants the package approved before parliament goes into Christmas recess, but NDP and Conservative MPs are seeking to derail the Liberals’ plans by quizzing Freeland and breaking up the package into separate bills to be voted on.

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead 6-12 Dec.pdf