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MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead Dec 7-13

All timings subject to change.

Monday 7 December:

  • EU-UK: Talks regarding a potential FTA reach their final hours as both sides seek to avoid the UK leaving the transition period with no deal at the end of the year. The prospect of a deal being reached seems to be on a knife-edge, with positive sounding briefings swiftly countered by more downbeat assessments and vice versa. Talks believed to be allowed to continue until Wednesday according to EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier.
  • United States: Both the House of Representatives and Senate in session on Monday. There is the potential for a bipartisan COVID-19 aid bill, believed to be worth around USD900bn, to be put forward in the Senate as soon as Monday. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) have both spoken about their hopes for a COVID-19 bill to be attached to the government funding bill.
  • United Kingdom: The government reintroduces the UK Internal Market bill to the House of Commons. The bill has caused controversy over sections which override aspects of the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement in breach of international law. The EU has stated that the passage of this bill would make a post-Brexit FTA impossible. Commons set to vote down amendments to the bill from the House of Lords and debate the bill again on Thursday.
  • European Union:Foreign Affairs council meeting between EU foreign ministers. Topics of discussion include the future of EU-US relations following the election of Joe Biden as US president, and developments in Turkey, where President Recep Tayyip Erdogan continues to stoke a war of words with French President Emmanuel Macron.
  • Ghana: General election. Incumbent President Nana Akufo-Addo from the centre-right New Patriotic Party running for a second term against former president John Mahama of the centre-left National Democratic Congress. Election also takes place for the 275 members of the Parliament. Observers and analysts largely expect Akufo-Addo to retain power.
  • Spain: Public holiday for Constitution Day (excl. Asturias, Basque Country, Cantabria, Castilla-La-Mancha, Catalonia, Galicia, and Valencia).
Full article PDF attached below:

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead Dec 7-13.pdf

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