MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead Nov 16-22

All timings subject to change.

Monday 16 November:

• EU-UK: Talks resume in Brussels as the two sides approach yet another deadline for the finalisation of a free trade agreement before the Brexit transition period ends on 1 January 2021. The issues holding up a deal remain the same as they have done for some months: fisheries and the level playing field (the ensuring of fair competition). The European Council videoconference on 19 November could be used as a time to approve a deal should one be reached during this week's talks. On 16 November, UK PM Boris Johnson stated that he was "confident [the UK] will prosper" even if a deal is not reached.
• Global: Moderna release interim results from its phase 3 COVID-19 vaccine trial. Like the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine announced last week, the Moderna jab also uses mRNA technology, and achieves similar levels of efficacy (around 90%) to the Pfizer/BioNTech product.
• European Union:COREPER II meeting between member state ambassadors to the EU. Meeting will discuss, among other matters, the endorsement of the EU's long-term budget. Hungary and Poland have threatened to veto the budget due to the inclusion of a mechanism that ties the distribution of funds to respect for the rule of law.
• United States:House of Representatives convenes for the first time since the election, with the session set to last through until December 10 with the one-week break for Thanksgiving next week. This leaves 15 working days to agree to a plan for avoiding a government shutdown, and passing a COVID-19 aid package. Both House and Senate leaderships have indicated they believe they hold the whip hand in talks, making the prospect of a deal being reached appear slim.
• France:President Emmanuel Macron hosts US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. Meeting could prove awkward, given Pompeo's backing of Trump after the president's claims of electoral fraud. Macron was one of the first global leaders to congratulate President-Elect Joe Biden and talk to him on the telephone. No press conference is scheduled following Macron's meeting with Pompeo.
• Peru:Congress to reconvene at 1400ET (1900GMT, 2000CET) as it attempts to agree on a new candidate for president, following the resignation of incumbent Manuel Merino on Sunday after less than a week in office. Merino replaced Martin Vizcarra, who was ousted in a vote of no confidence by the Congress on 9 November. Merino resigned after two young protestors were shot dead by security forces as they demonstrated against Vizcarra's removal, which opponents call a parliamentary coup.
• Global: Officials from the United Nations and the World Trade Organisation discuss with national ministers how to engender a sustainable economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Comes as part of the WTO's Trade and Environment Week.
• Mexico:Public holiday for Revolution Day Memorial.

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead Nov 16-22.pdf