MNI POLITICAL RISK - Border Security May Derisk Govt Shutdown

Executive Summary:

• House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) plans to advance his Israel supplemental funding bill despite a poor score from the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office on his strategy to offset the cost with cuts to the IRS.
• Johnson appears to have softened his outlook on Ukraine slightly in recent days, expressing a tentative willingness to consider a Ukraine funding package, but he remains deeply at odds with the Senate and the White House.
• Waning support for Ukraine amongst House Republicans may accelerate after Ukraine’s top general Valery Zaluzhny revealed that the war with Russia has reached a stalemate.
• Senator James Lankford (R-OK) is engaged in discussions with Senate Democrats on a bipartisan border security deal which could help unlock President Biden’s national security supplemental funding request.
• House Oversight Committee Chair James Comer’s (R-KY) impeachment probe into President Biden could provide Speaker Johnson with sufficient political capital to push through a short-term government funding bill.
• Secretary of State Antony Blinken will depart today on an eight-day trip to meet leaders in the Middle East and Indo-Pacific.
• The House of Representatives has dismissed a motion to expel freshman Republican Rep George Santos (R-NY) from Congress.
• Vice President Kamala Harris yesterday added Washington’s signature to a 28-nation declaration on artificial intelligence.
• Senator Tim Scott (R-SC), a Republican Presidential candidate and the ranking member on the Senate Banking Committee, will today unveil a new framework for reforming capital markets and the SEC
• Poll of the Day: Voter support for Ukraine continues to drop.

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MNIPOLRISKUSDaily021123.pdf