MNI POLITICAL RISK - House Faces Paralysis Over New Speaker

Executive Summary:

• The race to find the next Speaker of the House of Representatives is now underway. The two presumptive frontrunners for the gavel, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) and Freedom Caucus founding member, Jim Jordan (R-OH), both formally submitted their interest in the job yesterday.
• Contrary to the speaker vote in January where former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) struggled over 15 ballots to gain support from the hard-right of the party, this race will likely run through the center.
• Interim Speaker Rep Patrick McHenry (R-NC) will hold internal discussions on Tuesday ahead of a vote on Wednesday but there is no guarantee that any candidate can gather the requisite 218 votes. An extended paralysis on the House raises the risk of a government shutdown on November 17 and has significant implications for the future of aid to Ukraine.
• President Biden acknowledged yesterday that the future of continued security assistance to Ukraine is now in serious doubt and will deliver “a major speech” in the coming days advocating for Ukraine.
• Democratic Senators have called on President Biden to ensure that concerns over security, nuclear proliferation, and Palestine are addressed before signing off on a 'megadeal' deal with Saudi Arabia.
• Poll of the Day: The White House messaging problem on the economy has become a key weakness in Biden's 2024 campaign.

Please find the full article attached below:

MNIPOLRISKUSDaily051023.pdf