MNI POLITICAL RISK - Shutdown Averted But Risk Remains High

Executive Summary:

• Congress narrowly avoided a government shutdown late Saturday evening after a chaotic two-day dash which saw House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) abandon conservative spending cuts and provisions to secure the US-Mexico border. The resulting short-term patch keeps the government funded for 45 days with spending pegged to levels agreed by McCarthy and President Biden during debt ceiling negotiations.
• McCarthy’s immediate future is unclear. His most vocal critical, Rep Matt Gaetz (R-FL), is expected to pursue a ‘motion to vacate the chair-’ the first serious move to oust a Speaker in a century - at some point this week and McCarthy will likely have to again lean on Democrats to keep his job.
• With a government shutdown averted, the White House and Senate are expected to prioritise strategy for legislating the next tranche of Ukraine funding.
• California Governor Gavin Newsom (D-CA) will appoint Laphonza Butler, president of pro-abortion rights PAC Emily’s List, to fill the vacant California Senate seat of Dianne Feinstein.
• Poll of the Day: Almost 15% of registered voters say they would vote for a third party or independent candidate in 2024.

Please find the full article attached below:

MNIPOLRISKUSDaily021023.pdf