MNI POLITICAL RISK - US Elections Weekly: Swing States Tighten

Executive Summary:

• Vice President Kamala Harris successfully navigated her first press interview since assuming the presumptive Democratic nomination last month. She competently navigated some tricky questions on policy ‘flip-flops’ and trod a relatively safe line between defending the Biden administration’s record while calling for a break from the past.
• Harris is riding a wave of enthusiasm, with 69% of voters now "more enthusiastic about voting than usual", up from 54% in March. The measure is slightly intangible but considered a crucial metric by some campaign strategists when determining the trajectory of an election campaign.
• Robert F. Kennedy Jr’s partial suspension of the presidential campaign, and subsequent endorsement of Trump, appears to have had little major impact on the presidential race.
• A string of state-level polls hint that the race for control of the Senate may be scrambled by tighter-than-expected races in Maryland and Texas.
• In line with expectations, Harris has received a slight polling bump from the Democratic National Convention. We expect the polling boost could continue into the weekend as more post-DNC surveys are released.
• Despite Harris’ continued polling strength, election forecast models project a toss-up race. Nate Silver’s model shows an inverse of last week’s forecast, with Trump leading for the first time since August 3 as his model controls for the convention bounce.
• Traders at betting and prediction markets are now firmly in ‘coin-flip’ territory.
• Inside: A full round-up of the week's notable polls and analysis of election forecast models and betting market data.

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