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MNI Poll Suggests Wariness Of Short-Term Risks To USD Downside Consensus

USD

After outlining the potential and eventually realised break of the downward sloping trendline for the DXY, dating back to its March 2020 highs, we decided to conduct a social media survey, with a poll running over the last 24 hours. The poll simply asked if people believed the DXY's move above downtrend resistance will prove to be a clean break or a false break:

  • Our Twitter poll generated the following breakdown: Total Votes: 461, Clean Break: 52.5%, False Break: 47.5%.
  • Our LinkedIn poll generated the following breakdown: Total Votes: 37, Clean Break:59%, False Break: 41%.
  • The results were fairly evenly split, and we do stress that the poll doesn't account for views covering the potential scale of future moves in the DXY, nor can we account for the positioning/market participation of respondents.
  • Still, given the well documented short USD positioning (per CFTC CoT data) and consensus call for a weaker USD in 2021, we would suggest that the poll results point to a growing focus on some of the near-term threats to the weaker USD view (positioning, short-term relative growth prospects for the U.S. vs. the Eurozone on the back of fiscal matters/the EU's COVID vaccination struggles and relative U.S. Tsy yield moves to name a few). Indeed, Wednesday saw Nordea note that they see greater upside risks for the USD than are generally appreciated.
  • Our Technical Analyst ran a piece on the outlook for the DXY on Wednesday (see MNI Markets Analysis: USD Index Head And Shoulders Reversal), please contact sales@marketnews.com if you would like access to that report.
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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