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MNI PREVIEW (1/3): Nov Nonfarm Payrolls Seen +550K

US DATA

November nonfarm payrolls are expected to have risen by 550k, vs 531k in October, per both the MNI Dealer Median and Bloomberg survey median (the Bloomberg “Whisper” survey is 559k).

  • FULL MNI PREVIEW PDF HERE:https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/documents/12844/US...
  • The MNI dealer range is 450k-800k; BBG survey range is 375k-800k.BBG avg is 545k with standard deviation of 71k (so roughly speaking, a figure below 400k or above 680k would be considered a noteworthy surprise).
  • The unemployment rate is seen falling 0.1pp to 4.5%, with average hourly earnings +0.4% M/M (unch), and the participation rate picking up 0.1pp to 61.7%.
  • The main market focus on this month’s payrolls report is whether job gains are sufficient to keep the Fed on track to decide at the December FOMC meeting to quicken the pace of its asset purchase taper.

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