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MNI PREVIEW: Norges Set For August Hold; Hike On Far Horizon

Policy Rate Seen Unchanged at 0%, With First Hike Likely At Back End Of Three-Year Forecast Horizon

LONDON (MNI)

Norway's central bank is set to leave policy rates unchanged at a record low 0% Thursday following its August meeting, and signal a return to higher rates towards the end of its three-year forecast horizon, as a krone recovery eases any pressure for forex intervention.

The economy has outperformed Norges Bank's initial forecasts after the Covid pandemic hit and has largely re-opened. With death rates low by international standards, the bank is unlikely to do more than keep supplying ultra-cheap lending and dollar liquidity to the banking sector.

Its latest set of full economic projections, published in June's Monetary Policy Report, showed the policy rate at zero over the next couple of years before edging up to 0.5% in 2023.

While the August statement, though unaccompanied by quarterly projections, is likely to reaffirm the committee's view that rates should edge higher towards the tail end of its forecast horizon, persistent uncertainty over the path of Covid may prevent further fine tuning of the wording on the likely path of tightening.

KRONE

The krone hit record lows in March, amid a world-wide rush for dollars as the pandemic swept through major economies, prompting the Norges Bank to say it was monitoring the move and looking at the case for intervention.

But it has since regained its poise, with the import-weighted krone exchange rate index touching 111.22 on Aug. 13, its strongest reading since Feb 20. Depreciation could boost inflation by raising import prices.

CPI-ATE inflation was forecast in June at 3.0% this year and 2.6% in 2021, before reaching the 2.0% target in 2022. A rallying krone could help to attain the target earlier, leaving the central bank facing a relatively benign scenario of strengthening activity and declining inflation.

Governor Oystein Olsen has made clear he is not in favour of either negative interest rates or quantitative easing, pointing to thin debt markets and the fact that Norway's government bond yields are not a key determinant of other borrowing rates.

MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2223 | david.robinson@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2223 | david.robinson@marketnews.com

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