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MNI RBA Preview - October 2023: Extended Pause, Watch November

RBA
  • The RBA is likely to leave rates at 4.1% again at its October 3 meeting, as the economy is developing broadly as the bank expects.
  • The tightening bias will probably be retained to keep the central bank’s options open going forward and the accompanying statement may again be little changed.
  • The RBA is expecting headline inflation of 4.1% and trimmed mean of 3.9% by year end, and the Q3 CPI data due on October 25 should indicate whether these forecasts may need to be revised in early November.
  • The big question mark is over the November 7 meeting, which will include updated forecasts and the more detailed Q3 CPI data. If CPI forecasts are revised up then the risk of another hike rises substantially.
  • See full preview here.

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