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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessMNI RBI Preview - December 2022: Resilient Growth Backdrop Points To A 35Bps Hike
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- On balance we see risks tilted towards a 35bps move. In our view the resilient growth picture painted by the Q3 GDP figures suggests the RBI can still tighten by this amount without fear of derailing the economic recovery too much. Such a move should send a signal to the domestic market that the RBI wants to ensure inflation returns to target as we move into 2023.
- Domestic food prices suggest there is further relief coming from a headline inflation standpoint. However, the RBI may remain wary of sticky upside inflation pressures as we move into 2023, particularly with a still reasonable growth backdrop.
- Some RBI members argued in September for a reduced pace of tightening (35bps instead of the 50bps delivered). Such voices may grow louder at this policy meeting, given the inflation pressures aren’t continuing to trend higher, while offshore conditions have also turned more supportive of less hawkish RBI action.
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RBI Preview - December 2022.pdf
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.