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MNI RBNZ Review: July 2023 - A High Bar For Further Hikes

RBNZ
  • As widely expected, the RBNZ left rates on hold at 5.50% earlier this week. The RBNZ appears happy with its current policy stance.
  • The restrictive stance is expected to be maintained for the foreseeable future. Further tightening is likely to be dependent on upside inflation/growth surprises, particularly in terms of risks that inflation doesn’t move back into the target range of 1-3% by the second half of next year. The RBNZ is also likely to be mindful of a further tightening in financial conditions - with average mortgage rates expected to reach around 6% in early 2024 based off current bank pricing.
  • Note we get Q2 inflation data next Tuesday. The market expects a further easing in headline inflation pressures to 5.9% y/y from 6.7%. The q/q headline is projected at 1.0% versus 1.2% prior. Note the May RBNZ MPS had Q2 inflation at 1.1% q/q and 6.1% y/y.
  • See the full review here:
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