MNI Eurozone Issuance Deep Dive: 2022 Outlook

2022 Outlook:

• The MNI Markets team expects gross issuance to be around E1.27tln in 2022, down just over 10% from the E1.42tln raised in 2021.
• However, redemptions in 2022 are expected to be over 10% higher than in 2021 (E769bln in 2022 vs E696bln in 2021).
• With coupon payments largely the same, we look for net issuance in 2022 of E327bln, down around 40% from the E551bln in 2021.
• Indeed, as the adjacent table shows, the vast majority of countries see a significantly lower issuance target in 2022 than in 2021, with only Belgium, Finland, Portugal and Slovenia looking to issue more.

MNI_EZ_DeepDive_2022_Outlook.pdfContents

Contents

• See pages 2-11 for country-by-country overviews of issuance so far this year, plans for the rest of the fiscal year and MNI’s expectations of January / February issuance for each country.
• See pages 12-13 for overviews of the 2022 calendar year in comparison to 2021.
• See page 14-20 for bond and T-bill auction calendars for 2022.
• See page 21-23 for a schedule of coupons and redemptions by country for 2022.

January - February Preview

• MNI looks for gross issuance of E138bln in January 2022 and E119bln in February 2022.
  
• Relative to January 2021, this is a reduction from the E170bln issued last year. The main differences are E12bln less of EU issuance (due to an auction being held in Jan 2022 versus a syndication in Jan 2021) and E10bln less Italian funding due to a smaller syndication and smaller auction sizes,
• February 2022 issuance is expected to be a similar size to February 2021.
• Syndications already held/announced: Austria 7/20/50-year, Belgium 10-year, Cyprus 10-year, EFSF 8/30-year, Greece 10-year, Ireland 10-year, Italy 30-year BTP, Portugal 20-year, Slovenia 5/40-year, Spain 10-year
• Syndications expected before end of February 2022: Belgium 30-year, ESM (unspecified), EU 10-year NGEU, Finland 10-year, France 30-year OATei, Italy (unspecified), Netherlands 10-year (via DDA).