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MNI: St. Louis Fed Model Sees Pick-Up In November Hiring

MNI (Washington)

St Louis Fed economists point to a November pick-up in hiring that is close to market expectations.

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U.S. hiring in November likely accelerated from a month earlier, according to the St. Louis Fed's analysis of real-time employment data from the scheduling software company Homebase, showing a seasonally adjusted rise of 537,000 jobs, economist Max Dvorkin told MNI.

The model forecast a seasonally adjusted gain of 100,000 jobs in October, as measured by the BLS's household survey. The actual figure came in at 359,000. "My forecast fell short last month, but I still consider it to be reasonably good," Dvorkin said.

The BLS's household survey tracks closely headline payrolls figures from the establishment survey but the figures can differ by hundreds of thousands month to month due to differing definitions of employment and technical factors.

Payrolls rose by 531,000 in October and are expected to gain another 525,000 in November.