Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
U.S. employment likely rose by several hundred thousand in December while wage gains continued to moderate, according to real-time labor market indexes from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, economist Max Dvorkin told MNI.
That would be on par with Wall Street expectations for a 200,000 gain in payrolls and average hourly earnings rise of 0.4% in Friday's jobs report.
The Fed bank's Coincident Employment Index was little changed last month at -0.02, translating into a drop in employment of 31,000, or an increase of 495,000 when seasonally adjusted. The index uses weekly data from time-tracker software provider Homebase to anticipate the Labor Department's household survey.
Dvorkin cautioned the Veterans Day holiday may distort the data, and an alternative analysis using Homebase figures from the week of Nov. 4 would lead to a stronger negative unadjusted change and a 260,000 adjusted gain in employment. "Seasonality and holidays are always the hardest to correct for. So the forecast for this month would be between" the two estimates, he said via email.
Separately, a wage tracker using Homebase data showed the mean of individual wage changes for workers continuously employed over four weeks in the last few weeks of December now stands closer to values seen in 2019. "Wage inflation continues to moderate," Dvorkin said.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.