MNI SURVEY: Japan Q3 GDP May Contract on Capex, Consumption

     TOKYO (MNI) - Japan's gross domestic product for July-September may fall

0.2% from the second quarter, or an annualized rate of -0.9%, due to weak

capital investment and consumption, according to nine economists surveyed by

MNI. 

     Their projections ranged from -0.2% to -0.5% quarterly, or annualized rates

of -0.7% to -2.1%.

     The Cabinet Office will release preliminary GDP data for Q3 at 0850 JST on

Nov. 14 (2350 GMT on Nov. 13).

     The expected contraction follows a gain of 0.7% in Q2, or an annualized

rate of 3.0%.

     The economists expect Q3 capital investment to be flat following +3.1% in

Q2, with forecasts ranging from -1.1% to +1.1%, following +3.1% in Q2.

     Meanwhile, the median of forecast for private consumption, making up 60% of

GDP, is -0.2% in Q3 from Q2 (ranging from -0.5% to 0.0%) following +0.7% in Q2.

     Private consumption was hit by typhoons and a major earthquake, the

economists said.

     The BOJ's supply-side Consumption Activity Index fell 0.1% on a seasonally

adjusted basis for August following a 0.0% fall in July.

     The Cabinet Office's Private Consumption Integrated Estimates Index, which

is based on both supply- and demand-side data, was unchanged in August following

-0.6% in July.

     The economists expect contribution from net exports and services to have

fallen 0.1 percentage point (pp) with forecast ranging from -0.3 pp to 0.0 pp,

following -0.1 pp in the second quarter.

     The Bank of Japan's real export index fell 1.9% on quarter in Q3 after

rising 0.6% in Q2.

     Looking ahead, the economists expect the economy to recover moderately in

Q4. The U.S.-China trade dispute may add risks to global demand and Japan's

exports, they said.

--MNI Tokyo Bureau; tel: +81 90-2175-0040; email: hiroshi.inoue@marketnews.com

--MNI Beijing Bureau; +86 10 8532 5998; email: william.bi@mni-news.com

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +86 (10) 8532-5998; email: flora.guo@marketnews.com

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