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January 05, 2018 08:55 GMT
MNI Survey Of China Economic Forecasts
MNI (Singapore)
BEIJING (MNI) - All figures y/y percentage change unless otherwise
specified.
New Loans Dec TSF Dec
GDP Q4 CPI Dec PPI Dec M2 ytd Dec CNY Bln CNY Bln
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Median 6.7 1.9 4.8 9.2 990 1500
High 7 2.1 5.2 9.5 1520 1700
Low 6.6 1.7 4.6 8.7 750 1150
Mean 6.7 1.9 4.8 9.1 1009.6 1451.4
No. 18 21 21 19 20 13
Previous 6.8 1.7 5.8 9.1 1120 1600
BAML 6.7 1.9 4.8 9.2 1120 1598
BankComm 6.7 1.9 4.9 9.5 850 na
CITIC Sec na 1.9 4.9 9.0 800 na
CICC 6.8 2.0 4.7 9.0 1000 1400
China Sec 6.7 1.8 4.6 9.2 1100 na
Commerzbank 6.8 2.1 4.7 9.0 1021 1500
Guotai Junan 6.8 1.7 4.8 9.0 900 1300
Huachang Sec na 1.7 5.0 9.2 900 na
Huatai Sec 6.7 1.8 4.7 9.0 na 1600
Industrial Bank 6.7 1.7 4.7 9.2 850 1500
ING 6.7 1.9 4.7 9.0 1520 na
Macquarie 6.6 1.9 4.8 9.2 950 na
Merchant Sec na 1.8 4.8 9.3 800 1200
Nomura 6.6 1.9 4.8 9.4 750 1150
Peking U Rsrch 6.8 1.8 4.8 9.2 1400 na
Sealand Sec 6.8 1.9 4.8 na 1050 na
Southwest Sec 6.6 1.9 5.2 9.0 1200 1500
Shanghai Sec 7 2.1 4.8 9.5 800 1320
Shenwan Hongyuan 6.7 1.8 4.8 9.0 980 1700
Standard Chartered 6.6 2.0 4.8 8.7 1000 1500
UBS 6.7 1.8 5.0 na 1200 1600
Trade Exports Imports Investment Output Retail
Bal $Bln $ % $ % YTD Dec Dec Sales Dec
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Median 37.9 10.0 15.0 7.1 6.0 10.2
High 45.0 15.0 18.0 7.3 6.8 11.0
Low 20.0 6.0 8.0 7.0 5.9 9.6
Mean 36.4 9.9 13.9 7.1 6.1 10.2
No. 19 21 21 21 21 20
Previous 40.2 12.3 17.7 7.2 6.1 10.2
BAML 37.9 13.0 17.1 7.1 6.0 10.3
BankComm 42.0 14.0 16.0 7.2 6.6 10.4
CITIC Sec 20.0 15.0 18.0 7.1 6.0 10.4
CICC 36.4 9.0 13.0 7.1 6.0 10.3
China Sec na 6.0 9.0 7.0 6.0 10.0
Commerzbank 39.5 9.6 13.4 7.0 6.2 10.3
Guotai Junan 33.4 10.0 15.0 7.2 6.0 10.0
Huachang Sec 35.5 10.2 15.0 7.0 6.2 10.1
Huatai Sec 33.0 6.5 11.0 7.3 6.1 9.6
Industrial
Bank 39.5 7.0 15.0 7.1 5.9 10.1
ING 40.2 8.7 10.4 7.2 6.0 10.4
Macquarie 32.6 8.0 14.0 7.0 6.0 10.2
Merchant Sec 45.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.1 10.3
Nomura 38.5 6.0 8.0 7.1 6.1 10.1
Peking U
Rsrch 39.0 11.0 16.5 7.1 6.0 11.0
Sealand Sec na 12.0 13.7 7.2 6.1 10.0
Southwest Sec 35.1 10.0 15.0 7.1 5.9 10.0
Shanghai Sec 38.0 10.0 15.1 7.3 6.8 10.3
Shenwan
Hongyuan 33.4 10.0 16.0 7.2 6.1 9.8
Standard
Chartered 35.0 9.0 14.0 7.0 5.9 10.1
UBS 38.3 14.0 18.0 7.0 6.1 na
Note: The survey median is compiled solely from the forecasts listed above
and is not intended to represent a market consensus.
December trade data due for release on Jan. 12.
December CPI, PPI due for release at 0930 local/0130 GMT Jan. 10; December
industrial output, retail sales and ytd fixed-asset investment due for release
at 1000 local/0200 GMT on Jan. 18.
December money supply, bank loans and total social financing expected to be
released between Jan. 10 and Jan. 15. Date and time uncertain.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +86 (10) 8532-5998; email: beijing@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,MAQDT$,M$A$$$,M$Q$$$]
To read the full story
Close
Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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