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Market News Topics
June 01, 2018 09:06 GMT
MNI Table: RBA Cash Rate Forecast;Nomura Pushes Hike To Feb'19
--Majority See First Hike In Mid-2019
By Sophia Rodrigues
SYDNEY (MNI) - Analysts at Nomura have also pushed back their forecast for
the first hike in the Reserve Bank of Australia's cash rate in this cycle,
leaving Goldman Sachs the lone voice calling for a hike in November among MNI's
poll of 20.
Nomura now expects the first hike in February 2019 and a second in August.
"We are pushing back our forecast for a November rate hike, due to: 1)
softer global data; 2) financial market developments; and 3) local news,
particularly on the housing and lending front," strategist Andrew Ticehurst
wrote in a note.
He also believes the RBA's thinking is evolving in a less confident
direction and is look for softer comments from the governor in Tuesday's policy
press release.
Earlier Friday, TD Securities pushed their forecast to May 2019 from
November this year.
Below is a table of forecasts for the next RBA cash rate decision on June 5
and the outlook for the cash rate. The cash rate is currently at 1.5%.
June 5 Outlook
-----------------------------------------------------------------
NAB Hold 25bps hike in May 2019.
ANZ Hold Hold in 2018; Hike in May 2019
Westpac Hold Hold 2018, 2019
CBA Hold 25bps hike Feb 2019
Goldman Sachs Hold 25bps hike in Nov
Citigroup Hold 25bps hike in Q1 2019
JP Morgan Hold Hold for foreseeable future
HSBC Hold 25bps hike in Q2 2019
TD Securities Hold 25bps hike in May, Nov 2019
UBS Hold Hike in 2H 2019
Deutsche Bank Hold 2 hikes each in 2H 2019, 2020
AMP Capital Hold Hike sometime in 2020
Moody's Hold Hold through 2018; Hike early 2019
St. George Hold 25bps hike in Q1 2019
Macquarie Hold 25bps hike Q1 2019, 2.25% by end-2019
Nomura Hold 25bps hike in Feb, Aug 2019
RBC Capital Hold 25bps hike in Q1 2019
BankAm-ML Hold 25bp hike in May 2019
Morgan Stanley Hold Hold until Q3 2019
Standard Chartered Hold Hold in 2018
--MNI Sydney Bureau; tel: +61 2-9716-5467; email: sophia.rodrigues@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,MMLRB$,M$A$$$,M$L$$$,MT$$$$]
To read the full story
Close
Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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