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MNI UK CPI Preview - May 2024: Services CPI in the spotlight

  • The MNI Markets team thinks that with the Bank of England very likely to keep rates on hold on Thursday and maintain consistent guidance, that the biggest UK event this week is the release of May CPI.
  • The median of the analyst previews that we have read (and the Bloomberg consensus) looks for services CPI in May to fall to 5.5%Y/Y, still notably above the BOE’s forecast of 5.26%.
  • The MNI Markets team thinks that there are two-way risks to the services CPI print, but in our view downside risks outweigh upside risks.
  • As we noted in our Labour Market Review, there wasn’t as large an increase in wages of “wholesaling, retailing, hotels and restaurants” in April as we had expected, we think there could be a larger reversal in accommodation and restaurants than expected.
  • We look at the main other downside and upside risks, as well as what this means for market pricing.
For the full MNI UK CPI Preview including summaries of over 20 sellside analysts' views see:

UK_CPI_Preview_2024_06_Release.pdf

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