MNI UK DATA SURVEY: December UK IOP, Manufacturing, Trade

By Jamie Satchithanantham

     LONDON (MNI) - UK aggregate production seems set to fall in December, with

the unexpected shutdown of the Forties oil pipeline the driving factor. The

pipeline transports roughly 40% of UK oil and was shut for several weeks ahead

of Christmas. Analysts see IOP down 0.9% m/m in December, in line with the ONS

estimate factored into its January 26 preliminary Q4 GDP estimate. 

     Manufacturing output, on the other hand, looks set to make it eight

straight months of expansion in December. Analysts have pencilled in a robust

0.5% m/m rise for December to follow the 0.4% increase in November. 

     The preliminary estimate of fourth quarter GDP had placed industrial

production (IOP) up 0.6% on the quarter, largely due to a strong showing from

the manufacturing sector(+1.3% q/q).           

     Elsewhere, the trade picture is also expected to have improved in December,

boosting hopes that the sector will make a positive contribution to Q4 GDP after

a neutral Q3. 

     The deficit is expected to have narrowed by stg0.2bn to stg2.3bn with the

visible trade balance expected to improve by stg0.5bn. 

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                Dec       Dec     Dec     Dec           Dec           Dec

           Ind Prod  Ind Prod     Mfg     Mfg   Total Trade   Goods Trade

             Output    Output  Output  Output       Balance       Balance

              % m/m     % oya   % m/m   % oya        stg bn        stg bn

Date Out     09-Feb    09-Feb  09-Feb  09-Feb        09-Feb        09-Feb

Median         -0.9       0.3     0.5     1.3          -2.3         -11.7

High            0.3       0.3     0.6     1.4          -2.0         -11.5

Low            -1.0      -1.0     0.2     0.3          -2.5         -12.0

Std Dev         0.5       0.7     0.2     0.5           0.2           0.2

Count             6         4       5       4             4             4

Prior           0.4       2.5     0.4     3.5          -2.8         -12.2

Capital        -0.9       0.3     0.3     1.2          -2.5         -12.0

C Suisse       -0.9       N/A     N/A     N/A           N/A           N/A

Commerz         0.3       N/A     N/A     N/A           N/A           N/A

Investec       -0.9       0.3     0.6     1.4          -2.1         -11.5

Nomura          N/A      -1.0     0.2     0.3           N/A         -11.5

Oxford         -0.9       0.3     0.5     1.4          -2.4         -11.8

UniCredit      -1.0       N/A     0.5     N/A          -2.0           N/A

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203-586-2226; email: jamie.satchithanantham@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE,MABDT$,M$B$$$,M$E$$$]