MNI UK Data Survey: Feb Industrial Production, Mfg and Trade

By Jai Lakhani

     LONDON (MNI) - February's upcoming industrial production (IOP) print has

analysts pencilling in a slowdown in activity. Estimated growth in February was

pencilled in at 0.5% m/m, down from 1.3% m/m in January.

     The year-on-year estimate, however, is expected to pick up, rising 1.3pp to

2.9% in February.

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                           Feb         Feb

                    Industrial  Industrial

                    Production  Production

                         % m/m       % oya

Date Out                11-Apr      11-Apr

Median                     0.5         2.9

Forecast High              0.7         3.0

Forecast Low               0.2         2.7

Standard Deviation         0.2         0.2

Count                        6           3

Prior                      1.3         1.6

Capital Economics          0.5         3.0

Credit Suisse              0.7         N/A

Commerzbank                0.7         N/A

Investec                   0.2         2.7

Nomura                     0.3         2.9

UniCredit                  0.5         N/A

     Manufacturing, a bright spot within the UK economy in recent months, is

expected to have continued its expansion in February, albeit at a more modest

pace. Month-on-month growth of 0.2% is pencilled in for February, broadly

unchanged from January, which is seen as enough to take the year-on-year rate to

3.2%.  

                        Wednesday      Wednesday

------------------------------------------------

                              Feb            Feb

                    Manufacturing  Manufacturing

                           Output         Output

                            % m/m          % oya

Date Out                   11-Apr         11-Apr

Median                        0.2            3.2

Forecast High                 0.3            3.3

Forecast Low                 -0.2            2.9

Standard Deviation            0.2            0.2

Count                           4              3

Prior                         0.1            2.7

Capital Economics             0.1            3.2

Credit Suisse                 N/A            N/A

Commerzbank                   N/A            N/A

Investec                     -0.2            2.9

Nomura                        0.2            3.3

UniCredit                     0.3            N/A

     One common theme noted among analysts is that the boost to net trade from a

lower pound is still an ongoing presence. This combined with the unwinding of

rising oil prices could help to explain why analysts have pencilled in a

narrowing of both the total and visible trade balance deficit.

     Analysts anticipate a narrowing of the February total trade balance from

-stg3.1 billion to -stg2.5 billion. The narrowing is slightly less for the

visible trade balance, where the median February estimate suggests a narrowing

from -stg12.3 billion to -stg11.9 billion. 

------------------------------------------

                              Feb      Feb

                            Total  Visible

                    Trade balance    Trade

                           stg bn   stg bn

Date Out                   11-Apr   11-Apr

Median                       -2.5    -11.9

Forecast High                -2.4    -11.6

Forecast Low                 -2.6    -12.0

Standard Deviation            0.1      0.2

Count                           3        3

Prior                        -3.1    -12.3

Capital Economics            -2.4    -11.6

Investec                     -2.6    -11.9

Nomura                        N/A    -12.0

UniCredit                    -2.5      N/A

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203 865 3828; email: jai.lakhani@marketnews.com

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203-586-2226; email: jamie.satchithanantham@marketnews.com

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2223; email: david.robinson@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$B$$$,M$E$$$]