MNI UK DATA SURVEY: UK January Inflation Data

By Jamie Satchithanantham

     LONDON (MNI) - UK inflation is seen falling further away from the

five-and-a-half-year high recorded in November (3.1%), dropping to 2.9%,

according to a survey of analysts, while RPI is seen unchanged at 4.1%. 

     With the worst of the surge in prices following the depreciation of

sterling thought to be over, inflation should, albeit gradually, edge back to

more welcome territory as we progress though the year. 

     That said, the Bank of England's MPC, in their most recent set of minutes

released Thursday, did show their belief that inflation could yet edge above the

3%-mark again before trending downwards.  

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                       Jan     Jan     Jan     Jan

                       CPI     CPI     RPI     RPI

                     % MoM   % YoY   % MoM   % YoY

Date Out            13-Feb  13-Feb  13-Feb  13-Feb

Median                -0.6     2.9    -0.7     4.1

Forecast High         -0.4     3.1    -0.5     4.2

Forecast Low          -0.6     2.8    -0.7     4.0

Standard Deviation     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1

Count                    5       6       4       4

Prior                  0.4     3.0     0.8     4.1

Commerzbank           -0.6     2.9     N/A     N/A

Investec              -0.5     3.0    -0.6     4.1

Nomura                -0.6     2.9    -0.7     4.0

Oxford Economics      -0.6     2.9    -0.7     4.1

RBC                   -0.4     3.1    -0.5     4.2

UniCredit              N/A     2.8     N/A     N/A

     Factory gate inflationary pressures are expected to have quietened in

January too. PPI input inflation is seen moderating to 4.1% from 4.8% in

December. This is expected to partially filter through to output prices with a

3.0% rise on the cards.     

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                          Jan        Jan         Jan         Jan

                    PPI Input  PPI Input  PPI Output  PPI Output

                        % MoM      % YoY       % MoM       % YoY

Date Out               13-Feb     13-Feb      13-Feb      13-Feb

Median                    0.6        4.1         0.3         3.0

Forecast High             0.7        4.2         0.4         3.2

Forecast Low              0.3        3.8         0.2         3.0

Standard Deviation        0.2        0.2         0.1         0.1

Count                       3          3           3           3

Prior                     0.1        4.9         0.4         3.3

Investec                  0.7        4.2         0.3         3.0

Nomura                    0.3        3.8         0.4         3.2

Oxford Economics          0.6        4.1         0.2         3.0

     These tables will be updated Monday February 12.

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203-586-2226; email: jamie.satchithanantham@marketnews.com

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com

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