MNI UK DATA SURVEY: UK January Retail Sales

By Jamie Satchithanantham

     LONDON (MNI) - With the forecasting chaos generated by Black Friday, Cyber

Monday and other seasonal promotions that the UK's Office for National

Statistics has found difficult to adjust its data for, it may be better to look

at the cumulative Nov-Jan period when making a comparison to the performance in

other years.  

     Sales were up a strong +1.0% m/m in November, followed by a -1.5% m/m slide

in sales in December. In January, analysts foresee sales volumes back in the

black, up +0.3% m/m on a total basis and +0.4% m/m on a ex-fuel basis. 

----------------------------------------------

                             Jan           Jan

                    Retail Sales  Retail Sales

                    Incl. Petrol  Excl. Petrol

                           % MoM         % MoM

Date Out                  16-Feb        16-Feb

Median                       0.3           0.4

Forecast High                0.5           0.6

Forecast Low                -0.5          -0.4

Standard Deviation           0.4           0.5

Count                          4             3

Prior                       -1.5          -1.6

Commerzbank                  0.3           N/A

Investec                     0.3           0.4

Nomura                       N/A           0.6

Oxford Economics             0.5           N/A

UniCredit                   -0.5          -0.4

     This table will be updated on Monday February 12. 

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203-586-2226; email: jamie.satchithanantham@marketnews.com

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com

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