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MNI UK Inflation and Labour Market Insight: August 2024 Release

  • We don’t think that this week’s labour market, inflation or GDP data were game changers for the MPC.
  • We look at the labour market data in detail, the outlook for wage growth, the fall in unemployment and put into context the rise in the claimant count.
  • For inflation, we note that the largest single contribution to the downside surprise to services CPI was accomodation but there are a couple of categories that were lower this month and could rebound higher next month.
  • It is also important to note that despite services prices falling more than expected, core goods and food prices stabilised more than expected - if this is an early trend, it will also be a concern to the MPC as it would mean headline inflation would still be higher than expected.
  • We also summarised sellside views across UK labour market, inflation and GDP releases.
For the full PDF see:

MNI UK Inflation Labour Insight - August 2024 Release.pdf

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