September 11, 2023 11:36 GMT
MNI UK Labour Market Preview: Close to private wage peak?
The MPC will be focused on private sector pay growth which is expected to remain unchanged at 8.1%3m/YoY. The re-estimation of seasonality could have an impact on this week's release.
- UK labour market data is due for release on Tuesday at 7:00BST and will be one of the final data releases ahead of the next MPC policy decision which is due Thursday 21 September.
- One of the main concerns for the MPC at present the moment is the continued persistence in wage pressures. The data in the 3-months to June saw private sector regular wages rise from 7.9%Y/Y to 8.2%Y/Y and the median from the previews that we have read looks for a 0.1ppt fall to 8.1% (with a mean of 8.13%).
- The scale of the revisions due to the re-estimation of the seasonality could have a decent impact on the overall series.
- Outside of wage growth, the rest of last month’s labour market report showed some reduced tightness, with the unemployment rate has rising from 4.0% to 4.2%, the highest since October 2021 and from a trough of 3.5% in August 2022. Of the 12 analyst previews we read, 2 look for an unchanged 4.2% print in the 3-monthsto July while 5 look for 4.3% and a further 5 look for 4.4%.
We have read through and summarised the key points from 12 sellside previews. See the full document here: