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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
- UK labour market data is due for release on Tuesday at 7:00BST and will be one of the final data releases ahead of the next MPC policy decision which is due Thursday 21 September.
- One of the main concerns for the MPC at present the moment is the continued persistence in wage pressures. The data in the 3-months to June saw private sector regular wages rise from 7.9%Y/Y to 8.2%Y/Y and the median from the previews that we have read looks for a 0.1ppt fall to 8.1% (with a mean of 8.13%).
- The scale of the revisions due to the re-estimation of the seasonality could have a decent impact on the overall series.
- Outside of wage growth, the rest of last month’s labour market report showed some reduced tightness, with the unemployment rate has rising from 4.0% to 4.2%, the highest since October 2021 and from a trough of 3.5% in August 2022. Of the 12 analyst previews we read, 2 look for an unchanged 4.2% print in the 3-monthsto July while 5 look for 4.3% and a further 5 look for 4.4%.
We have read through and summarised the key points from 12 sellside previews. See the full document here:
UK_Labour_Preview_2023_09_Release.pdf
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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