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MNI UK Labour Market Preview - May 2024 Release

  • With the MPC last week deemphasising labour market data somewhat, we have looked at what it could take to trigger an upside surprise to the BOE's new forecasts - and possibly derail a June cut.
  • We find that without revisions it would take a huge increase in the single month private regular AWE numbers to the highest level since September 2023 to exceed the Bank's 6.0%Y/Y forecast in the 3-months to March.
  • Even with a 0.1ppt upward revision to February's single month print, March's single month figure would have to be higher than December's.
  • So overall, to get an upside surprise to the BOE's forecast is actually quite difficult without changing the narrative around the labour market.
  • From the analyst previews we have read, the median expectation is for private regular AWE to increase 5.9%Y/Y - a tenth lower than the BOE's forecast.
  • We include summaries of those previews, as well as summaries of GDP reviews.
For the full document see:

UK_Labour_Preview_2024_05_Release.pdf

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