MNI: UK Preliminary Data Forecasts - Ind. Prod, Construction

     LONDON (MNI) - The pace of expansion in UK Industrial Production is

expected to have risen in September, and in the process see the sixth

consecutive monthly rise.

The median forecast of economists surveyed by MNI is for a rise of 0.3% on a

monthly basis from 0.2% in August. The annual print is expected to rise to 2.0%

in September from 1.6% in August.

Construction Output is expected to have fallen 1.0% on the month in September

according to the MNI survey after a 0.6% rise in August. The annual reading is

expected to have moderated to 1.5% in September from 3.5% in August.

These data are unlikely to prove incendiary as the ONS already announced

estimates of these figures in the initial print for Q3 GDP in October. The ONS

predicted that Industrial Production rose 0.3% on the month, while Construction

Output is forecast to have fallen 1.0%.

                      Thursday    Thursday      Thursday      Thursday

----------------------------------------------------------------------

                           Sep         Sep           Sep           Sep

                    Industrial  Industrial  Construction  Construction

                    Production  Production        Output        Output

                         % m/m       % oya         % m/m         % oya

Date Out                09-Nov      09-Nov        09-Nov        09-Nov

Median                     0.3         2.0          -1.0           1.5

Actual

Consensus

Forecast High              0.3         2.0          -0.2           2.2

Forecast Low                 0           2            -1             1

Standard Deviation         0.0         0.1           0.4           0.4

Count                        8           5             4             3

Prior                      0.2         1.6           0.6           3.5

BofAML                     0.3         2.0          -1.0           1.5

Credit Suisse              0.3         N/A           N/A           N/A

Commerzbank                0.3         N/A           N/A           N/A

HSBC                       0.3         2.0          -1.0           1.4

Investec                   0.3         1.9           N/A           N/A

Nomura                     0.2         1.9           N/A           N/A

Oxford Economics           0.3         2.0          -0.2           2.2

UniCredit                  0.3         N/A          -1.1           N/A

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203 865 3809; email: kieran.williams@marketnews.com

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