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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Consensus puts core CPI inflation at 0.3% M/M in December, with risk seen to the downside.
- If analysts are correct, supercore trend rates are likely to remain very strong at 4% annualized handles, but treat with some caution as differences in methodology have seen core PCE at notably weaker rates in recent months.
- The extent to which volatile factors such as airfares can once again help shape the market reaction.
- Even without a beat, the realization of still relatively sticky core CPI inflation could help continue a trimming of Fed rate cut expectations compared to extremes seen late last year. That said we wouldn’t rule out a miss seeing a renewed push towards more fully pricing in a March cut (currently 18bp priced) even if that seems too early in our view.
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Recent Inflation Developments:
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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