MNI:US Data Forecast Focus: Advance 4th Qtr GDP Seen Up 3.0%>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The advance estimate of fourth quarter GDP is 

expected to be rise by 3.0% after a 3.2% gain in the previous quarter, 

marking a third straight quarter above 3%. A large surge in PCE growth 

is expected to be the key factor, based on recent retail sales data. In 

addition, both residential and nonresidential fixed investment are 

expected post gains in the quarter, while inventory growth should post a 

small negative contribution. The chain price index is expected to 

accelerate to a 2.3% rate from 2.1% in the previous quarter. 

     Analysts underestimated advance GDP in the third quarter after 

overestimates in the previous three quarters. Missing data for the third 

month of the quarter, in this case December, is always a risk, though 

the advance estimates of trade and retail and wholesale inventories 

lessen that risk. Unfortunately this month, that will release not come 

until after the GDP release due to the brief Federal Government 

shutdown. 

                                            Final   Final

                                            Growth  Final   Median less

                                             Rate:   Sales:  actual advance:

Forecast:                            3Q-17     3.2      2.4   3Q-17   -0.3

 Median               3.0            2Q-17     3.1      2.9   2Q-17    0.1

 Range High           3.8            1Q-17     1.4      2.6   1Q-17    0.5

 Range Low            2.7            4Q-16     2.1      1.1   4Q-16    0.2

                                                                            4Q avg/

                                                                            3Q avg

                                                                             % chg

                             Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17  Dec-17 Ann Rate

Indices:

  BLS Agg Hours               107.2   107.4   107.4   107.6   108.1   108.3   2.5

  Ind. Production             105.0   104.6   104.8   106.6   106.5   107.5   8.1

$ blns unless otherwise noted:

  Real PCE**                11895.8 11891.8 11962.1 11965.1 12014.2 11989.7   2.5

  Total Retail Sls            476.8   476.5   486.2   489.5   493.6   495.4  11.3

  Non-MV Retail Sls           378.0   379.8   384.8   386.7   391.8   393.3  10.6

  Mtr Veh Retail Sls           98.7    96.8   101.4   102.8   101.8   102.1  13.9

  Control Retail Sls          261.8   261.9   264.0   265.5   269.2   270.0   8.9

  Civ Cap Shipments            72.6    71.9    73.9    73.1    74.4    73.7   5.2

  Civ Cap Shipms ex Air        63.9    64.8    65.6    66.5    66.4    66.4  10.5

  Bus. Invs**                1875.9  1888.0  1887.2  1887.2  1895.4  1891.3   1.6

 Constr. Spending**          1215.4  1220.9  1236.3  1247.1  1257.0  1252.0   9.4

  Priv Residential Cons**     513.8   516.6   523.6   525.3   530.8   528.1   8.0

  Priv Nonresidential Cons    433.7   429.2   430.7   429.7   433.5   431.6   0.4

  Public Construction**       267.8   275.1   282.0   292.0   292.7   292.3  27.7

 Goods Gap (2009 $)**          61.8    62.2    62.2    65.6    66.7    66.1  29.3

  Goods Exports (2009 $)**    126.3   124.8   125.9   125.5   128.6   127.0   4.3

  Goods Imports (2009 $)**    188.1   187.0   188.1   191.1   195.3   193.2  12.1

**In cases where quarterly data are not complete,

the average of the first two months of the quarter is

substituted for the third month.

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]