MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: December Sales Seen +0.1% On Gas

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Retail sales are forecast to hold steady in December

after a 0.2% gain in November that masked solid underlying strength. Not

seasonally adjusted industry motor vehicle sales rose further in December, while

AAA reported that gasoline prices fell further in mid-December from one month

earlier. Retail sales are expected to decline by 0.1% excluding motor vehicles

after a 0.2% gain in November due to weak gasoline station sales. Consumption

started of strong in October, by waned later in the quarter.

     Analysts slightly underestimated November sales as analysts correctly

predicted a gasoline sales drop, but other components were fairly strong. Recent

misses in past December reports suggest a chance of an overestimate.

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                                  Jul-18  Aug-18  Sep-18  Oct-18  Nov-18  Dec-18

Retail Sales forecast:

Median                               0.1     0.4     0.6     0.5     0.1     0.1

Range High                           0.5     0.5     0.8     0.9     0.6     0.2

Range Low                           -0.4     0.3     0.5     0.2    -0.2     0.0

Actual result                        0.5     0.1     0.1     0.8     0.2    #N/A

Median-Actual                       -0.4     0.3     0.5    -0.3    -0.1    #N/A

Historical comparison:            Dec-12  Dec-13  Dec-14  Dec-15  Dec-16  Dec-17

Median                               0.2     0.0    -0.2    -0.1     0.7     0.4

Range High                           0.8     0.3     0.2     0.3     0.8     0.7

Range Low                           -1.0    -0.2    -0.5    -1.0     0.2     0.2

Actual result                        0.5     0.2    -0.9    -0.1     0.6     0.4

Median-Actual                       -0.3    -0.2     0.7     0.0     0.1     0.0

                                  Jul-18  Aug-18  Sep-18  Oct-18  Nov-18  Dec-18

Retail ex-autos Forecast:

Median                               0.4     0.5     0.4     0.5     0.1     0.0

Range High                           0.5     0.7     0.7     0.8     0.5     0.2

Range Low                            0.0     0.3     0.2     0.2    -0.2    -0.2

Actual result:                       0.6     0.3    -0.1     0.7     0.2    #N/A

Median-Actual                       -0.2     0.2     0.5    -0.2    -0.1    #N/A

Historical comparison:            Dec-12  Dec-13  Dec-14  Dec-15  Dec-16  Dec-17

Median                               0.2     0.4    -0.1     0.2     0.5     0.3

Range High                           0.5     0.6     0.1     0.4     0.7     0.6

Range Low                            0.0     0.2    -0.5    -0.4    -0.1     0.1

Actual result                        0.3     0.7    -1.0    -0.1     0.2     0.4

Median-Actual                       -0.1    -0.3     0.9     0.3     0.3    -0.1

                                                  Sep-18  Oct-18  Nov-18  Dec-18

NA-Made Vehicle Sales, mln

units, saar                                          7.8     7.6     7.4     7.5

*Vehicle Sales Do Not Include

GM, Ford

AAA gasoline prices ($/gal)                        2.843   2.911   2.686   2.413

mo/mo pct change                                    -0.5     2.4    -7.7   -10.2

Consumer confidence                                135.3   137.9   136.4   126.6

Conf Bd Buying Plans Next 6

mo:*

Automobile                                          13.7    14.0    13.8    13.1

Home                                                 6.2     6.4     6.4     5.9

Major appliance                                     52.9    53.8    54.8    49.0

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

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