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USDCAD TECHS

Stronger In a Range

AUDUSD TECHS

Weaker In A Range

US TSYS SUMMARY

Ending The Week On A Soft Note

EURJPY TECHS

Bearish Risk Growing

USDJPY TECHS

Stronger, But Still Vulnerable

US

SP500 PE Ratio vs. CPI Inflation

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The CPI is expected to rise by 0.1% in January after a
gasoline-related dip in December. A further decline in gasoline prices, as
evidenced by the monthly AAA data, will be the key factor yet again. The core
CPI is forecast to post another 0.2% gain. Solid gains in the January 2018
should lead to declines in the year/year rates for overall and core CPI this
year. Annual revisions released on February 11 will be incorporated into the
data.
     Analysts slightly underestimated overall CPI in December and were correct
in their estimate of core CPI, with gasoline prices plunging as expected. For
January CPI, analysts' misses have been larger and to the low side in recent
years for the overall measure, but estimates of core CPI have been accurate as
usual.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                 Aug-18  Sep-18  Oct-18  Nov-18  Dec-18  Jan-18
Overall CPI Forecast:
Median                              0.3     0.2     0.3     0.0    -0.2     0.1
Range High                          0.4     0.2     0.4     0.1    -0.1     0.1
Range Low                           0.2     0.2     0.2     0.0    -0.2     0.0
Actual result                       0.2     0.1     0.3     0.0    -0.1    #N/A
Median-Actual                       0.1     0.1     0.0     0.0    -0.1    #N/A
Historical comparison:           Jan-13  Jan-14  Jan-15  Jan-16  Jan-17  Jan-18
Median                              0.1     0.1    -0.7     0.0     0.3     0.3
Range High                          0.2     0.2    -0.6     0.1     0.4     0.5
Range Low                           0.1     0.1    -0.9    -0.2     0.2     0.2
Actual result                       0.0     0.1    -0.7    -0.1     0.6     0.5
Median-Actual                       0.1     0.0     0.0     0.1    -0.3    -0.2
                                 Aug-18  Sep-18  Oct-18  Nov-18  Dec-18  Jan-18
Core CPI Forecast:
Median                              0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2
Range High                          0.3     0.3     0.3     0.2     0.2     0.3
Range Low                           0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.1     0.2
Actual result                       0.1     0.1     0.2     0.2     0.2    #N/A
Median-Actual                       0.1     0.1     0.0     0.0     0.0    #N/A
Historical comparison:           Jan-13  Jan-14  Jan-15  Jan-16  Jan-17  Jan-18
Median                              0.2     0.1     0.1     0.2     0.2     0.2
Range High                          0.2     0.2     0.1     0.2     0.2     0.3
Range Low                           0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.2     0.1
Actual result                       0.3     0.1     0.2     0.1     0.3     0.3
Median-Actual                      -0.1     0.0    -0.1     0.1    -0.1    -0.1
Change in:
                                         Sep-18  Oct-18  Nov-18  Dec-18  Jan-18
AAA Self-serve Reg Unleaded
($/gal)                                   2.843   2.911   2.686   2.413   2.232
mo/mo pct change                           #N/A     2.4    -7.7   -10.2    -7.5
ISM Mfg Index Price Index                  66.9    71.6    60.7    54.9    49.6
ISM Nonmfg Index Price
Index                                      63.3    61.3    64.3    58.0    59.4
--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$]