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Free AccessMNI: US Data Forecast Focus: January CPI Seen +0.1%, Soft Gas
WASHINGTON (MNI) - The CPI is expected to rise by 0.1% in January after a
gasoline-related dip in December. A further decline in gasoline prices, as
evidenced by the monthly AAA data, will be the key factor yet again. The core
CPI is forecast to post another 0.2% gain. Solid gains in the January 2018
should lead to declines in the year/year rates for overall and core CPI this
year. Annual revisions released on February 11 will be incorporated into the
data.
Analysts slightly underestimated overall CPI in December and were correct
in their estimate of core CPI, with gasoline prices plunging as expected. For
January CPI, analysts' misses have been larger and to the low side in recent
years for the overall measure, but estimates of core CPI have been accurate as
usual.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-18
Overall CPI Forecast:
Median 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.0 -0.2 0.1
Range High 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.1 -0.1 0.1
Range Low 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.2 0.0
Actual result 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.0 -0.1 #N/A
Median-Actual 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 #N/A
Historical comparison: Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18
Median 0.1 0.1 -0.7 0.0 0.3 0.3
Range High 0.2 0.2 -0.6 0.1 0.4 0.5
Range Low 0.1 0.1 -0.9 -0.2 0.2 0.2
Actual result 0.0 0.1 -0.7 -0.1 0.6 0.5
Median-Actual 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.3 -0.2
Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-18
Core CPI Forecast:
Median 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Range High 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3
Range Low 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2
Actual result 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 #N/A
Median-Actual 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 #N/A
Historical comparison: Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18
Median 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2
Range High 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3
Range Low 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1
Actual result 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3
Median-Actual -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1
Change in:
Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-18
AAA Self-serve Reg Unleaded
($/gal) 2.843 2.911 2.686 2.413 2.232
mo/mo pct change #N/A 2.4 -7.7 -10.2 -7.5
ISM Mfg Index Price Index 66.9 71.6 60.7 54.9 49.6
ISM Nonmfg Index Price
Index 63.3 61.3 64.3 58.0 59.4
--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.