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MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: January Final Dmd PPI Seen +0.1%

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 12:35 GMT Feb 14/07:35 EST Feb 14
     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Final demand PPI is expected to rebound by 0.1% in
January after a 0.2% December decrease that was due in large part to a sharp
energy decline. Energy prices are expected to rebound modestly following a 5.4%
December decrease, though a further dip in energy prices is a downside factor,
while food price growth is expected to slow after a 2.6% gain. Excluding food
and energy prices, PPI is forecast to rise 0.2% after a 0.1% December decrease.
Annual revisions released on February 12 will be incorporated into the data.
     Analysts overestimated both overall and core PPI in December. Recent
January misses have tilted toward underestimates, a rebound is possible.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                  Aug-18  Sep-18  Oct-18  Nov-18  Dec-18  Jan-19
Overall PPI Forecast:
Median                               0.2     0.2     0.3    -0.1    -0.1     0.1
Range High                           0.5     0.3     0.4     0.2     0.0     0.6
Range Low                            0.1     0.0     0.2    -0.3    -0.1     0.1
Actual result                       -0.1     0.2     0.6     0.1    -0.2    #N/A
Median-Actual                        0.3     0.0    -0.3    -0.2     0.1    #N/A
Historical Comparison             Jan-13  Jan-14  Jan-15  Jan-16  Jan-17  Jan-18
Median                               0.3     0.1    -0.5    -0.2     0.3     0.4
Range High                           1.1     0.4    -0.3    -0.1     0.5     0.6
Range Low                           -0.1    -0.3    -0.6    -0.5     0.2     0.2
Actual result                        0.2     0.2    -0.8     0.1     0.6     0.4
Median-Actual                        0.1    -0.1     0.3    -0.3    -0.3     0.0
                                  Aug-18  Sep-18  Oct-18  Nov-18  Dec-18  Jan-19
Core PPI Forecast:
Median                               0.2     0.2     0.2     0.1     0.2     0.2
Range High                           0.3     0.3     0.3     0.2     0.2     0.3
Range Low                            0.1     0.1     0.1     0.0    -0.1     0.2
Actual result                       -0.1     0.2     0.5     0.3    -0.1    #N/A
Median-Actual                        0.3     0.0    -0.3    -0.2     0.3    #N/A
Historical comparison:            Jan-13  Jan-14  Jan-15  Jan-16  Jan-17  Jan-18
Median                               0.2     0.2     0.1     0.1     0.2     0.2
Range High                           0.5     0.3     0.1     0.2     0.3     0.5
Range Low                            0.1     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.1     0.1
Actual result                        0.2     0.2    -0.1     0.4     0.4     0.4
Median-Actual                        0.0     0.0     0.2    -0.3    -0.2    -0.2
NOTE: From Jan. 2014 forward,
forecast data are for Final
Demand PPI and Core
                                          Sep-18  Oct-18  Nov-18  Dec-18  Jan-19
ISM Mfg Index Price Index                   66.9    71.6    60.7    54.9    49.6
ISM Nonmfg Index Price Index                63.3    61.3    64.3    58.0    59.4
--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]

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