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Free AccessMNI: US Data Forecast Focus: January Final Dmd PPI Seen +0.1%
Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 12:35 GMT Feb 14/07:35 EST Feb 14
WASHINGTON (MNI) - Final demand PPI is expected to rebound by 0.1% in
January after a 0.2% December decrease that was due in large part to a sharp
energy decline. Energy prices are expected to rebound modestly following a 5.4%
December decrease, though a further dip in energy prices is a downside factor,
while food price growth is expected to slow after a 2.6% gain. Excluding food
and energy prices, PPI is forecast to rise 0.2% after a 0.1% December decrease.
Annual revisions released on February 12 will be incorporated into the data.
Analysts overestimated both overall and core PPI in December. Recent
January misses have tilted toward underestimates, a rebound is possible.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19
Overall PPI Forecast:
Median 0.2 0.2 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.1
Range High 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.6
Range Low 0.1 0.0 0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.1
Actual result -0.1 0.2 0.6 0.1 -0.2 #N/A
Median-Actual 0.3 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 #N/A
Historical Comparison Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18
Median 0.3 0.1 -0.5 -0.2 0.3 0.4
Range High 1.1 0.4 -0.3 -0.1 0.5 0.6
Range Low -0.1 -0.3 -0.6 -0.5 0.2 0.2
Actual result 0.2 0.2 -0.8 0.1 0.6 0.4
Median-Actual 0.1 -0.1 0.3 -0.3 -0.3 0.0
Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19
Core PPI Forecast:
Median 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2
Range High 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3
Range Low 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.2
Actual result -0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 -0.1 #N/A
Median-Actual 0.3 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 0.3 #N/A
Historical comparison: Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18
Median 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2
Range High 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5
Range Low 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Actual result 0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4
Median-Actual 0.0 0.0 0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2
NOTE: From Jan. 2014 forward,
forecast data are for Final
Demand PPI and Core
Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19
ISM Mfg Index Price Index 66.9 71.6 60.7 54.9 49.6
ISM Nonmfg Index Price Index 63.3 61.3 64.3 58.0 59.4
--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.