MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: January Payrolls Seen +185,000>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 185,000 

in January after a below-expectation reading in December. Benchmark 

revisions to the establishment survey data will be included in this 

month's report. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 

4.1%, a 17-year low. Hourly earnings are forecast to rise 0.2% after a 

0.3% gain, while the average workweek is expected to hold steady at 34.5 

hours for the third straight month. 

     Analysts overestimated payrolls in December, returing to the recent 

trend of high misses after an underestimate in November. In addition, 

past data for January show seven misses to the high side and three 

misses to the low side over the last 10 years, so the chance of another 

overestimate is high. 

Forecast:                 Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-17

 Median                      180      70     315     200     190     185

 Range High                  200     125     350     250     210     230

 Range Low                   160     -45     200     165     170     160

Actual original result       156     -33     261     228     148    #N/A

 vs med. forecast             24     103      54     -28      42    #N/A

Historical comparison:    Jan-12  Jan-13  Jan-14  Jan-15  Jan-16  Jan-17

 Median                      130     160     185     243     189     175

 Range High                  210     200     250     265     245     220

 Range Low                   100     130     130     175     170     150

Actual original result       243     157     113     257     151     227

 vs med. forecast           -113       3      72     -14      38     -52

                          Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-17

ISM Mfg Employment          59.8    58.7    59.8    59.2    58.1    54.2

ISM Nonmfg Employment       56.1    56.4    57.0    55.4    56.3      NA

Conf Bd Jobs Plentiful      34.4    32.7    36.7    37.5    36.3    37.6

 Plentiful/Hard to Get Gap  16.0    14.7    19.6    20.7    20.3    21.2

Net change from survey week:

 Initial claims (Chg thsnd    -2      28     -37      17       5     -29

  4-week mvg avg              -4      28     -20      -9      -4       8

 Continuing claims           -11     -43     -11      60      -9     -11

Strikers (Net Chg thsnd)     1.7    -1.7    UNCH    UNCH    UNCH    UNCH

ADP Emp Report (Chg thsnd)   228      96     238     206     242     234

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email: kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]