MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: January Sales Seen +0.2% On Gas

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Retail sales are forecast to rise only 0.2% in January

after a string of solid gains. Seasonally adjusted industry motor vehicle sales

slipped modestly in January, while AAA reported that gasoline prices rebounded

in mid-January from one month earlier. Retail sales are expected to rise 0.5%

excluding motor vehicles after December's 0.4% gain, while the control group is

also expected to post a solid gain to start the first quarter.

     Analysts correctly estimated retail sales growth in December, but the

ex-motor vehicle reading came in slightly stronger than expeect. Misses for past

January data have been sharply tilted toward underestimates, with upside

suprises for both overall and ex-motor vehicle sales in the past two years.

                                  Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-18

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Retail Sales forecast:

Median                               0.1     1.9     0.0     0.3     0.4     0.2

Range High                           0.7     2.7     0.4     0.5     0.7     0.3

Range Low                           -0.3     1.4    -0.3     0.1     0.2    -0.2

Actual result                       -0.2     1.6     0.2     0.8     0.4    #N/A

vs median forecast:                  0.3     0.3    -0.2    -0.5     0.0    #N/A

Historical comparison:            Jan-12  Jan-13  Jan-14  Jan-15  Jan-16  Jan-17

Median                               0.8     0.1     0.0    -0.5     0.1     0.2

Range High                           2.0     0.6     0.3     0.4     0.4     0.3

Range Low                            0.3    -0.6    -0.5    -0.8    -0.3    -0.2

Actual result                        0.4     0.1    -0.4    -0.8     0.2     0.4

vs median forecast:                  0.4     0.0     0.4     0.3    -0.1    -0.2

                                  Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-18

Retail ex-autos Forecast:

Median                               0.5     0.9     0.2     0.7     0.3     0.5

Range High                           0.9     1.9     0.4     0.9     0.6     0.8

Range Low                            0.3     0.7    -0.1     0.3     0.1     0.0

Actual result:                       0.2     1.0     0.1     1.0     0.4    #N/A

vs median forecast:                  0.3    -0.1     0.1    -0.3    -0.1    #N/A

Historical comparison:            Jan-12  Jan-13  Jan-14  Jan-15  Jan-16  Jan-17

Median                               0.6     0.1     0.1    -0.6     0.0     0.5

Range High                           1.8     0.6     0.4     0.5     0.2     0.8

Range Low                            0.0    -0.8    -0.2    -0.8    -0.2     0.3

Actual result                        0.7     0.2     0.0    -0.9     0.1     0.8

vs median forecast:                 -0.1    -0.1     0.1     0.3    -0.1    -0.3

                                          Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-18

NA-Made Car Sales, mln units,

saar                                         4.6     4.4     4.3     4.1     3.6

NA-MadeTruck Sales, mln units,

saar                                         9.6     9.4     9.0     9.5     9.0

AAA gasoline prices ($/gal)                2.661   2.485   2.561   2.456   2.491

mo/mo pct change                            #N/A    -6.6     3.1    -4.1     1.4

Consumer confidence                        120.6   126.2   128.6   123.1   125.4

Conf Bd Buying Plans Next 6

mo:*

Automobile                                  12.1    14.0    13.3    13.0    13.4

Home                                         7.4     6.4     6.5     7.4     6.0

Major appliance                             53.8    48.8    53.4    59.3    49.6

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

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