MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: March Industrial Prod Seen +0.4%>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Industrial production is expected to rise 0.4% 

in March after a revised 0.9% surge in the previous month. Factory 

payrolls rose by 22,000 in March, while auto production jobs rose by 

3,000 and the factory workweek was mildly shorter at 40.9 hours, down 

from 41.0 hours in February. The ISM production index fell to a 

still-strong 61.0 in the current month from 62.0 in the previous month. 

Utilities production is  expected to rebound in the month after a 

decline in the previous month  due to warmer-than-usual weather, while 

mining production is forecast to post a more modest gain after a 

February surge. Capacity utilization is forecast to rise to 77.9% from 

77.7% in January. Annual revisions released on March 23 are included in 

the data.                     

     Analysts sharply underestimated industrial production in February 

as the mining production surged, while manufacturing rose modestly and 

utilities production decline. Recent March misses have been mixed in 

direction, so they offer little evidence of a trend. 

Industrial Production:     Oct-17  Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-18  Feb-18  Mar-18

Forecast:

 Median                       0.5     0.3     0.5     0.2     0.4     0.4

 High                         1.0     0.8     0.9     0.3     0.8     0.9

 Low                          0.3     0.0     0.1    -0.3     0.0     0.1

Actual result                 0.9     0.2     0.9    -0.1     1.1    #N/A

 Median-Actual               -0.4     0.1    -0.4     0.3    -0.7    #N/A

Historical Comparison:     Mar-12  Mar-13  Mar-14  Mar-15  Mar-16  Mar-17

 Median                       0.2     0.2     0.5    -0.5    -0.2     0.4

 High                         0.4     0.7     0.7     0.3     0.1     0.9

 Low                         -0.6    -0.1     0.0    -0.6    -0.6     0.1

Actual result                 0.0     0.4     0.7    -0.6    -0.6     0.5

 Median-Actual                0.2    -0.2    -0.2     0.1     0.4    -0.1

Capacity Utilization:      Oct-17  Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-18  Feb-18  Mar-18

Forecast:

 Median                      76.3    77.2    77.3    78.0    77.8    77.9

 High                        76.9    77.5    77.3    78.4    78.1    78.2

 Low                         76.2    77.1    77.2    77.0    77.4    77.7

Actual result                77.0    77.1    77.9    77.5    78.1    #N/A

 Median-Actual               -0.7     0.1    -0.6     0.5    -0.3    #N/A

Historical Comparison:     Mar-12  Mar-13  Mar-14  Mar-15  Mar-16  Mar-17

 Median                      78.5    78.3    78.7    78.5    75.3    76.1

 High                        79.0    79.6    79.1    79.1    75.5    76.5

 Low                         77.8    78.1    78.3    78.3    74.8    75.7

Actual result                78.6    78.5    79.2    78.4    74.8    76.1

 Median-Actual               -0.1    -0.2    -0.5     0.1     0.5     0.0

                           Oct-17  Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-18  Feb-18  Mar-18

NA-Made Motor Vehicle Sale   13.8    13.3    13.6    12.8    12.8    13.3

Mfg Agg Hrs Index % chg       0.7     0.2     0.1    -0.1     1.0    -0.1

Factory Jobs (000's)           20      30      39      20      32      22

 Auto Prod Jobs (000's)        -2       3       3       0       5       3

Mining Jobs (000's)             2       4       1       6       9       9

Levels:

  ISM Mfg PMI                58.5    58.2    59.3    59.1    60.8    59.3

  ISM Mfg Production         61.0    64.3    65.2    64.5    62.0    61.0

  Phila. Fed Index           28.8    24.3    27.9    22.2    25.8    22.3

  Empire State Index         28.1    20.9    19.6    17.7    13.1    22.5

  Chicago PMI                65.4    65.6    67.8    65.7    61.9    57.4

  Factory Workweek           40.9    40.9    40.8    40.7    41.0    40.9

  Factory Overtime            3.5     3.5     3.5     3.5     3.7     3.6

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]