MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: May Payrolls Seen +185,000>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 185,000 

in May after a stronger-than-expected 263,000 rise in April, but the 

very soft ADP report adds substantial downside risk to forecasts for 

private payrolls, and by extension nonfarm payrolls. 

     The unemployment rate is expected to remain at a 50-year low of 

3.6% after falling to that point in the previous month on a shrinkage in 

the labor force. Hourly earnings are forecast to increase by 0.3%, while 

the average workweek is expected to rise to 34.5 hours after falling to 

34.4 hours in April. 

     Analysts sharply underestimated payrolls in each of the last two 

months. Analysts have evenly missed May payrolls to the high and low 

sides in the last 10 years, so there is no clear forecast risk.

Forecast:                  Dec-18  Jan-19  Feb-19  Mar-19  Apr-19  May-19

 Median                       180     167     183     170     190     185

 Range High                   200     190     220     243     250     208

 Range Low                    166     135     141     145     165     145

Actual original result        312     304      20     196     263    #N/A

 Median-Actual               -132    -137     163     -26     -73    #N/A

Historical comparison:     May-13  May-14  May-15  May-16  May-17  May-18

 Median                       165     210     210     155     183     194

 Range High                   210     240     275     201     231     217

 Range Low                    125     175     180     110     155     169

Actual original result        175     217     280      38     138     223

 Median-Actual                -10      -7     -70     117      45     -29

                           Dec-18  Jan-19  Feb-19  Mar-19  Apr-19  May-19

ISM Mfg Employment           56.0    55.5    52.3    57.5    52.4    53.7

ISM Nonmfg Employment        56.6    57.8    55.2    55.9    53.7    58.1

Conf Bd Jobs Plentiful       45.5    46.7    45.7    42.5    46.5    47.2

 Plentiful/Hard to Get Gap   33.3    34.1    34.0    28.7    33.2    36.3

Net change from survey week:

 Initial claims (Chg thsnd     -4      -3      -4       3     -23      19

  4-week mvg avg                3      -1       7      -9     -19      19

 Continuing claims              4       8      66     -18    -101       8

Strikers (Net Chg thsnd)     -4.1    UNCH    -1.2    UNCH    UNCH    UNCH

ADP Emp Report (Chg thsnd)    249     264     220     158     271      27

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]