MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: May Sales Seen +0.7% On Autos>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Retail sales are forecast to rebound by 0.7% in 

May after a 0.2% decline in April. Not seasonally adjusted industry 

motor vehicle sales improved sharply in May. AAA reported that gasoline 

prices rose further in mid-May from one month earlier, but seasonal 

factors will likely offset that gain as the summer driving season 

started. Retail sales are expected to rise 0.4% excluding motor vehicles 

after a 0.1% increase in April, but after gas, vehicles, and building 

materials are cut out, the control group should show little gain. 

     Analysts sharply overestimated April sales after a strong March 

reading. Recent misses in past May reports have been evenly split 

between overestimates and underetimates. 

                         Dec-18  Jan-19  Feb-19  Mar-19  Apr-19  May-19

Retail Sales forecast:

 Median                     0.1    -0.1     0.3     1.0     0.2     0.7

 Range High                 0.2     0.5     0.5     1.3     0.4     1.0

 Range Low                  0.0    -0.9    -0.4     0.3     0.0     0.4

Actual result              -1.2     0.2    -0.2     1.6    -0.2    #N/A

Historical comparison:   May-13  May-14  May-15  May-16  May-17  May-18

 Median                     0.4     0.6     1.4     0.4     0.0     0.4

 Range High                 0.7     1.0     1.9     0.5     0.2     0.6

 Range Low                  0.1     0.4     0.9     0.2    -0.3     0.0

Actual result               0.6     0.3     1.2     0.5    -0.3     0.8

                         Dec-18  Jan-19  Feb-19  Mar-19  Apr-19  May-19

Retail ex-autos Forecast:

 Median                     0.0     0.2     0.4     0.8     0.7     0.4

 Range High                 0.2     0.9     0.6     1.0     0.9     0.7

 Range Low                 -0.2    -0.6    -0.2     0.1     0.4     0.1

Actual result:             -1.8     0.9    -0.4     1.2     0.1    #N/A

Historical comparison:   May-13  May-14  May-15  May-16  May-17  May-18

 Median                     0.3     0.4     0.9     0.4     0.1     0.5

 Range High                 0.5     0.8     1.6     0.6     0.4     0.6

 Range Low                  0.1     0.2     0.3     0.2    -0.2     0.2

Actual result               0.3     0.1     1.0     0.4    -0.3     0.9

                                 Jan-19  Feb-19  Mar-19  Apr-19  May-19

NA-Made Vehicle Sales, mln units    7.1     7.1     7.7     7.1     7.7

*Vehicle Sales Do Not Include GM, Ford

AAA gasoline prices ($/gal)       2.232   2.273   2.492   2.748   2.860

 mo/mo pct change                 #N/A      1.8     9.6    10.3     4.1

Consumer confidence               121.7   131.4   124.2   129.2   134.1

Conf Bd Buying Plans Next 6 mo:*

 Automobile                        12.9    12.4    14.2    13.3    14.4

 Home                               7.2     5.4     6.4     5.1     6.4

 Major appliance                   50.0    48.6    51.8    48.7    52.6

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* Respondents answering "yes"

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email: kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]