MNI:US Data Forecast Focus:October CPI Seen +0.1%,Core +0.2%>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The CPI is expected to rise only 0.1% in October 

following a 0.5% energy-related rise in September. Analysts expect 

energy prices to decline after September's 6.1% surge. The core CPI is 

forecast to rise 0.2% following an on-trend 0.1% increase in September. 

     Analysts slightly overerestimated overall CPI in September, both 

overall and ex-food and energy. Misses in October have been mixed, but 

small, for CPI. 

                             May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17

Overall CPI Forecast:

 Median                         0.0     0.0     0.2     0.3     0.6     0.1

 Range High                     0.0     0.2     0.2     0.4     0.7     0.2

 Range Low                     -0.5     0.0     0.1     0.2     0.5     0.0

Actual result                  -0.1     0.0     0.1     0.4     0.5    #N/A

 vs median forecast             0.1     0.0     0.1    -0.1     0.1    #N/A

Historical comparison:       Oct-11  Oct-12  Oct-13  Oct-14  Oct-15  Oct-16

 Median                         0.0     0.1     0.0    -0.1     0.2     0.4

 Range High                     0.1     0.2     0.2     0.0     0.3     0.5

 Range Low                     -0.1     0.0    -0.1    -0.2     0.1     0.3

Actual result                  -0.1     0.1    -0.1     0.0     0.2     0.4

 vs median forecast             0.1     0.0     0.1    -0.1     0.0     0.0

                             May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17

Core CPI Forecast:

 Median                         0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2

 Range High                     0.2     0.3     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.3

 Range Low                      0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1

Actual result                   0.1     0.1     0.1     0.2     0.1    #N/A

 vs median forecast             0.1     0.1     0.1     0.0     0.1    #N/A

Historical comparison:       Oct-11  Oct-12  Oct-13  Oct-14  Oct-15  Oct-16

 Median                         0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.2     0.2

 Range High                     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2

 Range Low                     -0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.2

Actual result                   0.1     0.2     0.1     0.2     0.2     0.1

 vs median forecast             0.0    -0.1     0.0    -0.1     0.0     0.1

Change in:

                                     Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17

AAA Self-serve Reg Unleaded ($/gal)   2.329   2.260   2.351   2.661   2.485

  mo/mo pct change                      #N/A   -3.0     4.0    13.2    -6.6

ISM Mfg Index Price Index              55.0    62.0    62.0    71.5    68.5

ISM Nonmfg Index Price Index           52.1    55.7    57.9    66.3    62.7

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]