MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: October Industrial Prod Seen +0.5%>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Industrial production is expected to rise 0.5% 

in October after a 0.3% rebound in the previous month. Factory payrolls 

rose by 24,000 in October, while auto production jobs rose by 3,000 and 

the factory workweek was rose to 41.0 hours from 40.8 hours in 

September. The ISM production index fell to 61.0 in the current month 

from 62.2 in the previous month, but remained strong. Utilities 

production is expected to rise modestly in the month after a 1.5% 

September rebound, while mining production is forecast to slip after 

posting a 0.4% gain. Capacity utilization is forecast to rise to 76.3% 

from 76.0% in September. 

     Analysts underestimated industrial production in September, as the 

rebound from the hurricane-impacted August report was stronger than 

expected. Recent October misses have been to the high side, with 

overestimates in each of the last five years.

Industrial Production:     May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17

Forecast:

 Median                       0.2     0.3     0.3     0.1     0.2     0.5

 High                         0.5     0.5     0.5     0.5     0.8     1.0

 Low                         -0.1     0.2     0.1    -1.3    -0.9     0.3

Actual result                 0.0     0.4     0.2    -0.9     0.3    #N/A

 vs median forecast           0.2    -0.1     0.1     1.0    -0.1    #N/A

Historical Comparison:     Oct-11  Oct-12  Oct-13  Oct-14  Oct-15  Oct-16

 Median                       0.4     0.1     0.2     0.2    -0.1     0.2

 High                         0.8     0.4     0.5     0.4     0.2     0.3

 Low                          0.1    -0.3    -0.2     0.0    -0.5     0.0

Actual result                 0.7    -0.4    -0.1    -0.1    -0.2     0.0

 vs median forecast          -0.3     0.5     0.3     0.3     0.1     0.2

Capacity Utilization:      May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17

Forecast:

 Median                      76.8    76.8    76.7    76.8    76.2    76.3

 High                        77.0    76.9    76.9    77.0    76.6    76.9

 Low                         76.6    76.6    76.6    75.6    75.4    76.2

Actual result                76.6    76.6    76.7    76.1    76.0    #N/A

 vs median forecast           0.2     0.2     0.0     0.7     0.2    #N/A

Historical Comparison:     Oct-11  Oct-12  Oct-13  Oct-14  Oct-15  Oct-16

 Median                      77.7    78.3    78.3    79.3    77.4    75.4

 High                        77.9    78.5    78.6    79.6    77.6    75.5

 Low                         77.5    78.1    78.0    79.2    77.0    75.3

Actual result                77.8    77.8    78.1    78.9    77.5    75.3

 vs median forecast          -0.1     0.5     0.2     0.4    -0.1     0.1

                           May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17

NA-Made Motor Vehicle Sale   12.7    12.8    12.9    12.3    14.2    13.8

Mfg Agg Hrs Index % chg       0.0     0.3     0.2     0.1     0.0     0.8

Factory Jobs (000's)            0      21     -11      44       6      24

 Auto Prod Jobs (000's)         1       3     -27      23      -3       3

Mining Jobs (000's)             6       6       1       5       1      -2

Levels:

  ISM Mfg PMI                54.9    57.8    56.3    58.8    60.8    58.7

  ISM Mfg Production         57.1    62.4    60.6    61.0    62.2    61.0

  Phila. Fed Index           38.8    27.6    19.5    18.9    23.8    27.9

  Empire State Index         -1.0    19.8     9.8    25.2    24.4    30.2

  Chicago PMI                59.4    65.7    58.9    58.9    65.2    66.2

  Factory Workweek           40.7    40.8    40.9    40.8    40.8    41.0

  Factory Overtime            3.3     3.3     3.3     3.4     3.4     3.5

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]