MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: October Payrolls Seen Up 315,000>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 

315,000 in October after September's hurricane-impacted 33,000 decline, 

while the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.2%. Hourly 

earnings are forecast to rise by only 0.2% after a 0.5% surge in the 

previous month, but the average workweek is expected to stay at 34.4 

hours for the fourth straight month. 

     Analysts sharply overestimated payrolls in the hurricane-impacted 

September report. Past data for October show misses have been evenly 

mixed between overestimates and underestimates over the last ten years, 

so the biggest forecast risk is how large the rebound from the September 

dip will be. 

Forecast:                  May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17

 Median                       183     170     181     180      70     315

 Range High                   231     210     220     200     125     350

 Range Low                    155     138     170     160     -45     200

Actual original result        138     222     209     156     -33    #N/A

 vs med. forecast              45     -52     -28      24     103    #N/A

Historical comparison:     Oct-11  Oct-12  Oct-13  Oct-14  Oct-15  Oct-16

 Median                        95     125     120     240     175     175

 Range High                   150     150     195     275     240     205

 Range Low                     70      90      70     195     150     160

Actual original result         80     171     204     214     271     161

 vs med. forecast              15     -46     -84      26     -96      14

                           May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17

ISM Mfg Employment           53.5    57.2    55.2    59.9    60.3    59.8

ISM Nonmfg Employment        57.8    55.8    53.6    56.2    56.8     NA

Conf Bd Jobs Plentiful       30.0    32.0    33.2    34.4    32.7    36.3

 Plentiful/Hard to Get Gap   11.7    13.6    14.5    16.0    14.7    18.8

Net change from survey week:

 Initial claims              -10k     +9k     -8k     -2k    +28k    -37k

  4-week mvg avg              -2k     +4k     -1k     -4k    +28k    -20k

 Continuing claims           -63k    +21k    +20k    -11k    -43k    -12k

Strikers (Net Chg thsnd)     UNCH    UNCH    UNCH     1.7    -1.7    UNCH

ADP Emp Report (Chg thsnd)    233     192     198     228     110     235

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email: kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]