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BLOCK, Large 3Y Midcurve Put Condor

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 
315,000 in October after September's hurricane-impacted 33,000 decline, 
while the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.2%. Hourly 
earnings are forecast to rise by only 0.2% after a 0.5% surge in the 
previous month, but the average workweek is expected to stay at 34.4 
hours for the fourth straight month. 
     Analysts sharply overestimated payrolls in the hurricane-impacted 
September report. Past data for October show misses have been evenly 
mixed between overestimates and underestimates over the last ten years, 
so the biggest forecast risk is how large the rebound from the September 
dip will be. 
Forecast:                  May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17
 Median                       183     170     181     180      70     315
 Range High                   231     210     220     200     125     350
 Range Low                    155     138     170     160     -45     200
Actual original result        138     222     209     156     -33    #N/A
 vs med. forecast              45     -52     -28      24     103    #N/A
Historical comparison:     Oct-11  Oct-12  Oct-13  Oct-14  Oct-15  Oct-16
 Median                        95     125     120     240     175     175
 Range High                   150     150     195     275     240     205
 Range Low                     70      90      70     195     150     160
Actual original result         80     171     204     214     271     161
 vs med. forecast              15     -46     -84      26     -96      14
                           May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17
ISM Mfg Employment           53.5    57.2    55.2    59.9    60.3    59.8
ISM Nonmfg Employment        57.8    55.8    53.6    56.2    56.8     NA
Conf Bd Jobs Plentiful       30.0    32.0    33.2    34.4    32.7    36.3
 Plentiful/Hard to Get Gap   11.7    13.6    14.5    16.0    14.7    18.8
Net change from survey week:
 Initial claims              -10k     +9k     -8k     -2k    +28k    -37k
  4-week mvg avg              -2k     +4k     -1k     -4k    +28k    -20k
 Continuing claims           -63k    +21k    +20k    -11k    -43k    -12k
Strikers (Net Chg thsnd)     UNCH    UNCH    UNCH     1.7    -1.7    UNCH
ADP Emp Report (Chg thsnd)    233     192     198     228     110     235
--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email: kkastner@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]