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Free AccessMNI:US Data Forecast Focus:October Sales Seen Flat,Autos Down>
WASHINGTON (MNI) - Retail sales are forecast to hold steady in
October after a sharp rebound in September. Seasonally adjusted industry
motor vehicle sales slowed in October after a surge in September, while
AAA reported that gasoline prices fell back in mid-October from one
month earlier. However, building material sales should remain strong as
rebuilding from the storms continued. Retail sales are expected to rise
0.2% excluding motor vehicles after September's 1.0% gain.
Analysts overestimated retail sales in August and September, but
some of that can be attributed to uncetainty about the hurricane effects
on a rebound in vehicle sales. Retail sales excluding vehicles were
slightly underestimated due sharp gains in gasoline sales and building
materials sales for the rebuilding effort. Misses for past October data
have been tilted toward underestimates for overall retail sales and
mixed for ex-motor vehicle sales.
May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17
Retail Sales forecast:
Median 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 1.9 0.0
Range High 0.2 0.2 1.0 0.7 2.7 0.4
Range Low -0.3 0.0 0.2 -0.3 1.4 -0.3
Actual result -0.3 -0.2 0.6 -0.2 1.6 #N/A
vs median forecast: 0.3 0.3 -0.3 0.3 0.3 #N/A
Historical comparison: Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16
Median 0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6
Range High 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.7
Range Low -0.2 -0.5 -0.1 -0.2 0.2 0.5
Actual result 0.5 -0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.8
vs median forecast: -0.3 0.1 -0.4 -0.1 0.2 -0.2
May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17
Retail ex-autos Forecast:
Median 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.2
Range High 0.4 0.3 1.0 0.9 1.9 0.4
Range Low -0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.7 -0.1
Actual result: -0.3 -0.2 0.5 0.2 1.0 #N/A
vs median forecast: 0.4 0.4 -0.2 0.3 -0.1 #N/A
Historical comparison: Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16
Median 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5
Range High 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8
Range Low -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 0.0 -0.1 0.4
Actual result 0.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.8
vs median forecast: -0.4 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 -0.3
Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17
NA-Made Car Sales, mln units, sa 4.0 4.2 4.0 4.6 4.4
NA-MadeTruck Sales, mln units, s 8.8 8.7 8.3 9.6 9.4
AAA gasoline prices ($/gal) 2.329 2.260 2.351 2.661 2.485
mo/mo pct change #N/A -3.0 4.0 13.2 -6.6
Consumer confidence 117.3 120.0 120.4 120.6 125.9
Conf Bd Buying Plans Next 6 mo:*
Automobile 12.6 13.6 12.9 12.1 13.1
Home 6.0 6.7 7.3 7.4 6.0
Major appliance 52.1 47.7 50.5 53.8 48.9
--
* Respondents answering "yes"
--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email: kkastner@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.