MNI:US Data Forecast Focus:October Sales Seen Flat,Autos Down>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Retail sales are forecast to hold steady in 

October after a sharp rebound in September. Seasonally adjusted industry 

motor vehicle sales slowed in October after a surge in September, while 

AAA reported that gasoline prices fell back in mid-October from one 

month earlier. However, building material sales should remain strong as 

rebuilding from the storms continued. Retail sales are expected to rise 

0.2% excluding motor vehicles after September's 1.0% gain. 

     Analysts overestimated retail sales in August and September, but 

some of that can be attributed to uncetainty about the hurricane effects 

on a rebound in vehicle sales. Retail sales excluding vehicles were 

slightly underestimated due sharp gains in gasoline sales and building 

materials sales for the rebuilding effort. Misses for past October data 

have been tilted toward underestimates for overall retail sales and 

mixed for ex-motor vehicle sales. 

                         May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17

Retail Sales forecast:

 Median                     0.0     0.1     0.3     0.1     1.9     0.0

 Range High                 0.2     0.2     1.0     0.7     2.7     0.4

 Range Low                 -0.3     0.0     0.2    -0.3     1.4    -0.3

Actual result              -0.3    -0.2     0.6    -0.2     1.6    #N/A

 vs median forecast:        0.3     0.3    -0.3     0.3     0.3    #N/A

Historical comparison:   Oct-11  Oct-12  Oct-13  Oct-14  Oct-15  Oct-16

 Median                     0.2    -0.2     0.0     0.2     0.3     0.6

 Range High                 0.5     0.3     0.4     0.7     0.5     0.7

 Range Low                 -0.2    -0.5    -0.1    -0.2     0.2     0.5

Actual result               0.5    -0.3     0.4     0.3     0.1     0.8

 vs median forecast:       -0.3     0.1    -0.4    -0.1     0.2    -0.2

                          May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17

Retail ex-autos Forecast:

 Median                     0.1     0.2     0.3     0.5     0.9     0.2

 Range High                 0.4     0.3     1.0     0.9     1.9     0.4

 Range Low                 -0.2     0.2     0.2     0.3     0.7    -0.1

Actual result:             -0.3    -0.2     0.5     0.2     1.0    #N/A

 vs median forecast:        0.4     0.4    -0.2     0.3    -0.1    #N/A

Historical comparison:   Oct-11  Oct-12  Oct-13  Oct-14  Oct-15  Oct-16

 Median                     0.2     0.2     0.0     0.2     0.4     0.5

 Range High                 0.4     0.6     0.3     0.5     0.6     0.8

 Range Low                 -0.4    -0.3    -0.4     0.0    -0.1     0.4

Actual result               0.6     0.0     0.2     0.3     0.2     0.8

 vs median forecast:       -0.4     0.2    -0.2    -0.1     0.2    -0.3

                                 Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17

NA-Made Car Sales, mln units, sa    4.0     4.2     4.0     4.6     4.4

NA-MadeTruck Sales, mln units, s    8.8     8.7     8.3     9.6     9.4

AAA gasoline prices ($/gal)       2.329   2.260   2.351   2.661   2.485

 mo/mo pct change                 #N/A     -3.0     4.0    13.2    -6.6

Consumer confidence               117.3   120.0   120.4   120.6   125.9

Conf Bd Buying Plans Next 6 mo:*

 Automobile                        12.6    13.6    12.9    12.1    13.1

 Home                               6.0     6.7     7.3     7.4     6.0

 Major appliance                   52.1    47.7    50.5    53.8    48.9

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* Respondents answering "yes"

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email: kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]