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MNI US Employment Insight, Jan'24: Hawkish But Less So Than First Met The Eye

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • Nonfarm payrolls growth beat expectations in December with 216k (41k surprise) but was marred by larger two-month downward revisions (-71k), continuing a frequent pattern for 2023.
  • Other details were generally stronger than expected albeit with slightly softer details.
  • The unemployment rate surprised lower amidst continued large volatility in the household survey, which included a sharp downtick in participation, whilst average hourly earnings growth surprised stronger.
  • On the flip side, average hours worked fell, the underemployment rate ticked higher and ISM Services employment in the separate release slumped.
  • The net effect of Friday’s employment data was a consolidation in the recent sizeable trimming in what had been large rate cut expectations, with March cumulative pricing back at 17bps and 137bp of cuts for 2024.

PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE:

USEmploymentReportJan2024.pdf


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