MNI US Inflation Insight, Jun'24: Supercore Shock As CPI Momentum Starts To Wane

We've just published our review of May's CPI and PPI reports, including summaries of 18 analysts' takes on the data - PDF here.

• U.S. inflation pulled back considerably in May, judging from both the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index reports which by some measures showed the weakest monthly price pressures in years.
• Sequential “supercore” CPI turned negative for the first time in nearly 3 years. While this was attributed by some observers to one-off factors, there were broad signs of softness across ex-housing services.
• Looking at the bigger picture, momentum indicators suggest that the resurgence in inflation in Q1 looks to be easing, but 3-month/6-month annualized rates remain well above the Fed’s 2% target.
• The May print kept the door open to a September Fed cut. Hours after the CPI release, Chair Powell characterized recent inflation data as “a step in the right direction”, though the Fed will have to see more progress before cutting rates.