MNI US Morning Briefing

     LONDON (MNI) - Across the Atlantic the first US release of the day is

Challenger Monthly Layoff Intentions at 1130GMT.

     Back in the UK it is 'Super Thursday' for the Bank of England. Interest

Rates, Minutes and the Quarterly Inflation Report will all be released at

1200GMT.

     The Bank is expected to hike for the first time since July 2007. Of the 10

analysts surveyed by MNI 9 predict a 25bp hike to 0.50%.

     The minutes of the September meeting noted that "a majority" of MPC members

thought that in the "coming months" withdrawal of some stimulus would be

appropriate. Since then we have heard from a variety of MPC members including

Governor Carney, Vlieghe and Tenreyro who agreed with this assessment.

     One notable exception was new Deputy Governor David Ramsden who said he was

not in that majority, and stated there are others who are doubtful that tighter

policy is needed right now.

     As such, it seems that while a hike is currently around 87% priced in

according to MNI PINCH, the vote will not be unanimous. The central forecast is

for a 7-2 vote. The smaller the majority, the greater the doubts will be over

further tightening

     At 1230GMT Weekly US Jobless Claims are on the docket. The level of initial

jobless claims is expected to rise by 2,000 to 235,000 in the October 28 week

after a 10,000 increase in the previous week.

     The four-week moving average would fall by 5,750 in the coming week as the

258,000 level in the September 30 week, the last of the true hurricane-impacted

weeks, drops out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and

there are no revisions.

     Also at 1230GMT are US Preliminary Non-Farm Productivity figures. Nonfarm

productivity is expected to rise 2.9% in the third quarter after a 1.5% gain in

the previous quarter, as output growth was close to steady, but hours worked

growth slowed.

     Unit labour costs are expected to rise by 0.6% following a modest 0.2% gain

in the second quarter.

     A busy time early in the US day Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell is

to give introductory remarks at the Alternative Reference Rates Committee

Roundtable in New York at 1230GMT.

     US ISM-NY Manufacturing Index is on the schedule for 1345GMT, the Bloomberg

US Comfort Index is also released.

     At 1430GMT US Natural Gas Stocks will be released.

     New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley is to give closing

remarks at Alternative Reference Rates Committee Roundtable in New York at

1620GMT.

     At 2030GMT comes the US Fed Weekly Money Supply Data.

     Rounding off the day at 2215GMT Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President

Raphael Bostic is to participate in "The Vital Role of Government Statistics"

panel at the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management's 39th Annual

Fall Research Conference in Chicago, with audience Q&A.

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203 865 3809; email: kieran.williams@marketnews.com