MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq

US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) Key 116-290 Support Now Back In View

*RES 4: 117-295 Sep 25 high, 50% Fibo of 119-015/116-252

*RES 3: 117-207 Oct 13 high, 38.2% Fibo of 119-015/116-252

*RES 2: 117-137/142 Oct 19 high, 76.4% of 117-207/116-252

*RES 1: 117-120 Nov 3 high

*PRICE: 117-020 @1145GMT

*SUP 1: 116-290/307 Hourly support, intraday low

*SUP 2: 116-252 Oct 27 low

*SUP 3: 116-175 Dec 15 low

*SUP 4: 116-155 Mar 10 low

*COMMENTARY* After recovering from the previous week's 116-252 low, last week

spent the majority of time trying to break through 117-102 resistance. A high of

117-120 on Friday but unable as yet to sustain this move. As a result, support

from 117-017 has been lost but only a loss of 116-290 will concern at this

stage. Above 117-120 and the 117-137/117-142 area is still anticipated to

provide resistance and a decent barrier to a 117-207 return.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) Decline Edges Towards A Test Of key 124-155 Support

*RES 4: 125-195 38.2% Fibo of 127-285/124-060

*RES 3: 125-150/160 Nov 7, Oct 19 highs

*RES 2: 125-080 Series hourly highs Nov 9

*RES 1: 125-015 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 124-275 @1150GMT

*SUP 1: 124-200 Hourly support

*SUP 2: 124-155 Hourly basing area Oct 25-26

*SUP 3: 124-060/065 Oct 25, Mar 29 lows

*SUP 4: 123-255 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Unable to sustain a break above the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at

125-135. A high of 125-150 last week and failed to challenge resistance from

between the higher 125-160/125-195 area. The subsequent fall below 125-005 was

the immediate concern, a low of 124-200 so far, with the downside still

protected by the lower 124-155 level. In the meantime, look to 125-015/125-080

for resistance.

US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) Falters After Tracking Upper 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: 155-04/08 Sep 25 high, 61.8% of 158-09/150-10

*RES 3: 154-26/30 Nov 8 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 2: 154-02 Hourly base Nov 9, now resistance

*RES 1: 153-18 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 152-26 @1151GMT

*SUP 1: 152-08/12 Hourly support

*SUP 2: 152-01 61.8% Fibo of 150-10/154-26

*SUP 3: 151-31 Nov 1 low

*SUP 4: 151-11/12 Oct 30 low, 76.4% Fibo of 150-10/154-26

*COMMENTARY* Rally faltered after moving into a ninth consecutive day of gains,

Wednesday seeing a high of 154-26, before finally giving way to some overbought

hourly conditions. Rise basically tracked the upper 1% volatility band. Support

from above 153-22 has been lost, this cautions now and suggests the time has

come for some deeper correction of the rise from the Oct 27 low at 150-10.

Resistance meanwhile comes from 153-18 and then 154-02.

     US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (Z17) 61.8% Fibo Support From 98.455 Now The Focus

*RES 4: 98.580 Sep 14 high

*RES 3: 98.555 Aug 25 low, now resistance

*RES 2: 98.525 Sep 25, Sep 28 highs

*RES 1: 98.510 Oct 13 high

*PRICE: 98.470 @1155GMT

*SUP 1: 98.455 61.8% Fibo of 98.335-98.655

*SUP 2: 98.410 76.4% Fibo of 98.335-98.655

*SUP 3: 98.360 Dec 15 low

*SUP 4: 98.335 Mar15 low

*COMMENTARY* Some movement last week, if only slight so far. 98.470 support has

finally given way, allowing the focus to switch to 98.455. This the 61.8% Fibo

retrace level of the 98.335-98.655 rally, seen between March and May earlier

this year. Resistance in the meantime hasn't really changed, while 98.455

remains intact, then it will take a move back above 98.510 to alter things. Loss

of 98.455 however, will trigger a deeper 98.410 fall.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]