MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq

US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Long Term Support Still Intact, 116-067 Resistance

*RES 4: 116-147 Hourly recovery high Dec 14

*RES 3: 116-117 Dec 18 high

*RES 2: 116-065/067 Dec 29 high, Dec 18 low

*RES 1: 116-027 Jan 3 high

*PRICE: 115-275 @1130GMT

*SUP 1: 115-270 Dec 26 low

*SUP 2: 115-197 5 year bear channel base projection

*SUP 3: 115-045 3 month bear channel base projection

*SUP 4: 114-265 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Fresh downside pressure last week following the inability to

traverse the 50% Fibo retrace level at 116-192 earlier in the month. A low of

115-270 before finding some support, ahead of the longer term supports between

115-197/115-045. Meanwhile, 116-067 still provides resistance. Above and

congested 116-117/116-147 lies ahead of any attempt at a real recovery.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Attempting Recovery After Hold Above 123-115

*RES 4: 124-210 Dec 13 high

*RES 3: 124-135 Dec 18 high

*RES 2: 124-070 Dec 15 low, now resistance

*RES 1: 124-025 Dec 29 high

*PRICE: 123-205 @1200GMT

*SUP 1: 123-170 Jan 2 low

*SUP 2: 123-115/125 Mar 17, Dec 21 lows

*SUP 3: 123-095 3 month bear channel base 

*SUP 4: 122-205 Mar 10, Mar 14 lows

*COMMENTARY* 123-290/123-295 support gave way late last month. The subsequent

fall breaking below the long term 76.4% Fibo retrace level at 123-235. A low of

123-125 seen so far, just above the Mar 17 low at 123-115 and also the 3 month

bear channel base at 123-095 today. The subsequent rise has moved above

123-290/123-295 but still needs through 124-025/124-070 before the chance of

seeing a better recovery. Nearest support moves up to 123-170.

US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Recovery So Far Lacks A 153-17 Break

*RES 4: 154-26/27 Nov 8, Nov 28 highs

*RES 3: 154-15/18 Dec 15, Dec 6 highs

*RES 2: 153-15/17 Dec 19 high, 76.4% Fibo of 154-15/150-14

*RES 1: 153-03/04 Dec 29, Dec 27 highs

*PRICE: 152-00 @1205GMT

*SUP 1: 151-12 Jan 2 low

*SUP 2: 151-07/08 Dec 22, Dec 21 highs, now support

*SUP 3: 150-14 Dec 20 low

*SUP 4: 150-07/10 May 11, Oct 27 lows

*COMMENTARY* The decline at the back end of last month found support from

150-14, keeping us above the key 150-10/150-07 lows from October and May last

year. The subsequent recovery has been impressive, reaching above 152-30

resistance, but with a high of 153-04, so far remains below the next resistance

of note, the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at 153-17. As a result, support moves to

151-12 and then more importantly 151-08/151-07.

     US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (H18) 98.185-98.180 Next Support As Decline Continues

*RES 4: 98.345 Oct 6 low, now resistance

*RES 3: 98.325 Nov 15 high

*RES 2: 98.290 Nov 14 low, Nov 22, 24, 28 & 29 highs

*RES 1: 98.245/250 Dec 28, 29 & Dec 14 highs

*PRICE: 98.190 @1212GMT

*SUP 1: 98.185 61.8% Fibo of 97.535-98.240

*SUP 2: 98.180 1.618 swing of 98.205-98.245

*SUP 3: 98.165 Mar 30 2015 high, now support

*SUP 4: 98.080 Dec 2015 low

*COMMENTARY* Have finally seen a slip below 98.200, opening the way for a look

at 98.185-98.180 where the next layer of support lies. Any lower than this and

the March 30 2015 high at 98.165 provides the protection against a potentially

deeper fall. The December 2015 low at 98.080 then the next support of note.

Meanwhile, the failure to recover through 98.245-98.250 has been the catalyst

for the latest fall, still need back above here for any respite.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]